Tag Archive for 'stock market trend'

The FTSE to reach 6000!??

Published on August 12, 2010 in Education, Market Reviews and ShareHunter News. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , .

So, the CEO of Standard Life Investments announces that he thinks the FTSE is going to hit 6000 before the end of the year! He may be right – but he could be very wrong. He is obviously guessing as he cites no technical reasons why it should.

It couldn’t be that he has an ulteria motive could it? It couldn’t be that he wants to encourage as many people as possible to invest into equity based funds (with the Standard Life of course) could it?

We will keep a note of Mr.Skeoch’s claim and will congratulate him on Dec 31st if, indeed, the FTSE has hit the 6000 level again or, if it has failed so to do, we will ask him for an explanation of how he and his investment managers base their wild claims. And we will keep you informed.

At the moment we could not make any such claim ourselves. Our detailed technical analysis still shows the FTSE as struggling to gain enough support to get above the resistance of the 5400 level area; should it eventually succeed in doing so the 6000 does become a possibilty but, at this stage, it is only proper to advise caution as the FTSE could so easily confirm its current effort at downtrending and could, soon, quickly fall to the 4500 level and perhaps a lot lower!

So, Mr. Skeoch we think it would be a lot fairer of you to have given equal prominance to the possibilty of a FTSE collapse or a continuing sideways move – but, the, of course, that wouldn’t attract many new investors into Standard Life’s equity funds, would it!!

Don’t get suckered in to this market – the FTSE could be about to change direction

Published on July 27, 2010 in Uncategorized. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , .

Let’s begin by admitting that no analytical system of the Stock Market is perfect and always 100% right. But there are some technical signals that do tend to ‘work’ more often than not and it is, therefore, worth taking note of them as and when they occur and adjusting one’s trading accordingly.

One such technical signal is when the index (or stock price) meets the level of its 30 week moving average (‘MA’); when it does the index, or share price, will often change direction at, or near, the meeting point. If the price has fallen to the MA level then, often, it will turn back upwards; if it has risen to the MA level then, often, it will reverse and fall back.

As you can see from this chart over the last few years the FTSE has changed direction each time it has met with or come close to the level of its 30 wk  moving average and it is at that level again now -

So, it would be wise to take notice of this and to hold fire on any new share purchases or long trades of the FTSE until the picture becomes clearer.

Another point to bear in mind (no pun intended) is that the FTSE is currently in a technical downtrend and within any downtrend there will often be ‘bear’ trend rallies that last for between 3 and 5 weeks. This week is the 4th week of the current rally!

FTSE FORECAST

Published on July 19, 2010 in Uncategorized. 2 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , .

The latest forecast of where the FTSE is headed is now available and the future is not looking very bright.

Has The FTSE Bottomed Out?

Published on July 12, 2010 in Uncategorized. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , .

Our latest analysis of the FTSE shows that this rally may continue for a while but that the FTSE has NOT bottomed out. There is a lot of risk buying into this market at the present time. Ask for a copy of the latest analysis of the FTSE’s direction

The Stock Market – to Rally or Crash?

Published on May 16, 2010 in Uncategorized. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , .

Every one of the major market indices that we report on every week is currently testing the level of its 30wk moving average (‘MA’). Why is this worthy of comment? It is because it is a common result of a test of the MA that the index (or share price for an individual stock) changes direction.

So for an index that has been falling and is now testing the level of its MA it is quite possible for it to now change direction and to rally. And that is exactly what might now happen for all of the major indices – but with the possible exception of the FTSE 100. We need the price action this week to confirm the direction change but the FTSE 250, the FTSE SmCap, the S&P 500, the Dow Jones Industrials and the Nasdaq 100 are all fallen to, and are now testing, the current level of their MAs and starting to bounce back.

The exception is the FTSE 100 which has already fallen through its MA. It has found temporary support at the important 5108 level and has managed to rally slightly – but only up to the level of its MA. In other words, if the usual result of a test of the MA level – a change in direction – occurs then the FTSE is due to fall again, not rally.

In this regard it is the FTSE that is out step with the rest of the major indices. It was only a couple of weeks ago when the FTSE led the rest of the world by falling sharply when all the other indices were reflecting an upward tendency that we suggested that it was unlikely that the FTSE was leading the way! We will not then make the same claim now as we could be a  wrong again. However, it has to be observed that with 5 other major indices suggesting that a rally may now be due the bias favours a rally for the FTSE 100 up from the 5108 support level.

The alternative scenario is that, if the FTSE is, again, showing the world’s markets the way to go then all are due for some steep falls and the FTSE itself will be due a damaging fall and, perhaps, to move into a longer term ‘bear’ trend. But, for the moment, this is the more distant scenario.

Individual market commentary and illustrative charts are available at http://www.sharehunter.com/news/market-review/

The FTSE 100 – Is it going Up or Down?

Published on February 28, 2010 in Education and Market Reviews. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , .

Last week’s efforts by the markets, and by the FTSE 100 in particular, leaves the impression that the index exhausted itself with its effort in bouncing up off of its 30wk Moving Average the week before. It is as though it felt it had done too much and used too much energy as last week’s efforts lacked any real signs of continuing strength.

An inconclusive week which, just to make life difficult, could be followed this coming week with either renewed energy and a rise up the scale or an absence of buying interest and a fall back towards another test of its (still rising) 30wk.MA.

So, it does look as though we are due for another inconclusive week of sideways movement and whipsawing tendencies as we have all experienced over the last few months (just look at the short term chart of the FTSE 250 index and note how long it has just meandered sideways).

But all of this will change, and probably soon. The market will not go sideways for ever. Our technical signals are far from fully positive, in fact there are several negative signals which hint at the growing potential for a sudden collapse of the markets.

But that will only happen if the FTSE 100 falls below the 5100 level (the equivalent for the FTSE 250 is the 8888 level) and whilst the indices stay above these level there remains the possibility of a return to upward moving share prices. But that will only become a real possibility if the S&P 500 index can get back up to, and stay above,above the 1122 level and that is not going to be easy for it to achieve as it too has a number of negative signals that suggest a sharp decline is still a danger.

So, the message remains one of ‘no change – but change coming soon’. It is a ‘Baden-Powell’ message – “Be Prepared”

Individual market commentary and illustrative charts are available at http://www.sharehunter.com/news/market-review/

What is Happening on the Stock Market?

Published on January 17, 2010 in Education, Market Reviews and ShareHunter News. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , .

Last week the FTSE 100 closed 78 points (-1.4%) down. Hardly dramatic. Our trend analysis shows that the Uptrend is still in place and so higher prices are likely to re-assert themselves soon. It may not be during this coming week though as our Momentum Indicator is suggesting that there may be insufficient buying activity to lift the markets in the short term.

From the date (March 2009) that the stock market bottomed out the pattern of the FTSE 100 index has been a ‘wave flow’ of 1 to 4 weeks of higher closes followed by 1 to 2 weeks of lower closes. So last week’s small correction is just part of that pattern and this week we may see a perfectly normal extension of that correction before the index turns upward again – which we, calculate, should be the following week.

But, if that doesn’t happen then the wave-flow pattern will have changed and that could signify an imminent change in the dominant trend and be something to be very wary about. But that is a week or two away yet and, of course, may not happen at all. For the time being it is a matter of being prudent and not over committing to the market but also of being ready to take full advantage if, as expected, the market rallies later this coming week or during the following week.

Individual market commentary and illustrative charts are available at http://www.sharehunter.com/news/market-review/