Tag Archive for 'stock market sectors'

UK Small Cap Shares – Best to wait before buying

Published on November 21, 2011 in Education and Market Reviews. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , .

We have seen  some press comment and the occasional article suggesting that now may be a good time to be snapping up small cap stocks. Well, it may be – but at risk of losing a shirt or two if it all goes pear shaped, as it might. The FTSE Small Cap index is in a Downtrend as its dominant trend (which, of itself, portends lower prices to follow) -

(Click on chart to enlarge)

The important support level at 1910 has failed and the index is now below it which is a signal of weakness but it is about to test for support at the 2700 area (the level of the Dec’09 and Feb’10 lows) and it is important that that area holds by providing support. If it doesn’t then there is potential for the index to fall towards the 2050 level before sufficient support may be found – and, if that were to happen, some large losses would be incurred.

Best stay out of this market until the picture of a final low is clearer.


The ‘FTSE Forecast’ – Accurately Points the Way for Investors and Traders

Published on August 15, 2011 in Education and ShareHunter News. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , .

Over recent months the FTSE Forecast has continued to provide accurate information on the direction of the stock markets.

It has, for example, not only warned subscribers of the impending stock market crash many weeks before it occurred but also it gave the warning on the first day of the crash that further were falls due.

We also highlighted the exact level at which the FTSE would stop falling and turn around.

It just doesn’t get better than that!

The FTSE Will Fall Again

Published on August 15, 2011 in Education and Market Reviews. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , .

Late last week buyers obviously reckoned that they could see a good buying opportunity as they returned to the market in force. The result was that the FTSE 100 closed at the top of its range for the week.

The low for the week was right on the support level that we had identified for members a week earlier!

The FTSE is now in something of a state of limbo. There is the possibility that it might claw its way back up to the 5670 area and even, possibly, to the 5750 area as it is a fact that there is always a positive period that follows such a steep collapse as the FTSE has suffered over the past two weeks.

This ‘limbo’ period is a dangerous time as a sense of ‘recovery’ can fill the air and buyers begin to lose their caution and start doubling up on their earlier purchases so as not to miss out on the expected recovery (the earlier concerns about the state of the market being explained away as “over reaction”).

But, beware, because it is a fact that, until it changes, the market is still in the early phase of a stage 4 Downtrend which, by its very nature, will follow through with more declines in share values after the bounce. It has happened before -

Click on the cart to enlarge it

It is likely that the FTSE 100 will fall to test the strength of the support at the 4782 level again at some point. If it should close below that level then we can expect more falls and, perhaps, a decline all the way down to the 3475 level again.

So, enjoy and benefit from any sustained bounce that the FTSE may provide over the coming weeks but remember it is in a Downtrend as its dominant trend and that it will, therefore, fall back again.

The FTSE – Is It About to Tumble?

Published on June 5, 2011 in Education and Market Reviews. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , .

The FTSE is still in the grip of the 5974/6055 area of resistance and is close to losing the support of its 30wk Moving Average.

It is not looking too promising. Much now depends on the coming week and whether or not the FTSE can pull itself back above, or at least to, the level of its 30wk Moving Average (which is currently at 5923) -

(Click on chart to enlarge it)

The signal being given by its fall below its 30wk MA – combined with the sideways move over the last 21 weeks  (yes, it’s that long) – is that the index could be in process of a swing into a ‘Stage 3’ Distribution (or ‘Topping’) trend.

The significance of this is that a ‘Stage 3’ trend is usually a pre-curser to a swing into a ‘Stage 4’ Downtrend. Added to which the Triple Top formation can be clearly identified which, of itself, can lead to a steep, sometimes fast, decline.

A reminder of the 4 Stages in which the market moves -

So, the poor old FTSE is not promising much at all although there is time yet, just, for it to recover and rally back above its 30wk MA. There are occasions when a ‘Stage 3’ trend is followed by a return to a ‘Stage 2 Uptrend (although these are far fewer than a swing into a Downtrending ‘Stage 4’).

And there are some positive signs elsewhere that might have a beneficial influence on the FTSE and help it to recover or, at least, to avoid a collapse. These are detailed in the latest ‘FTSE Forecast’ Report which is available on request to admin@sharehunter.com

IS The FTSE Going To Crash?

Published on April 19, 2011 in Education and Market Reviews. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , .

Yesterday’s sharp fall was exactly the sort of reaction to expect under a newly forming ‘triple top’ formation and one that we warned about in last weekend’s issue of the ‘FTSE Forecast’ Report.

But it was far from disastrous and it is to be hoped/expected that the underlying support will prevent a more serious and drawn out collapse (although we still await the potential influence on share prices of the falling Momentum Indicator – as highlighted in last weekend’s Report).

Support for the FTSE is at two levels close by – firstly the current level of its 30 wk Moving Average which is at the 5900 area and, secondly, at the 5770 level. Both are shown on the chart below -


(Click on the chart to enlarge it)

Remember, all of these support and resistance levels should be looked upon as elastic bands; often they will appear to be broken by a hard,sharp move whereas, in fact, they are ‘giving’ a little (usually we allow between 1% and 3%) before producing the support (or resistance).

So, 5900 should provide support and allow the FTSE to reverse and climb back again. If that fails then 5770 should do the job. If that then fails then we are into a new scenario and the possibility of a steep and perhaps long Downtrend (and in which event you will need to brush up on your shorting skills).

It is going to be interesting to see what the FTSE achieves this week and, of course, we will comment again in our ‘FTSE Forecast’ Report next weekend.

FTSE, Dow, S&P, Nasdaq – Going Up?

Published on March 29, 2011 in Education and Market Reviews. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , .

We may not be out of the woods and running clear (upwards) just yet – there is still plenty of potential to cause a major setback and a change in trend – but the market action over the last two weeks has confirmed our earlier analysis that the recent sharp downmoves were ‘normal’ short-term reactions within the dominant Uptrend.

The FTSE 100 has pulled itself back up above its important 30wk Moving Average and, with the continuation of its dominant Uptrend, it should continue upwards towards another attempt to break out above the 5974/6055 resistance area. Such a breakout, when it comes, is likely to be the signal for some fast up moves in share prices as the index enjoys the sense of freedom after such a long battle to achieve the breakout.

(Click on a chart to enlarge it)

Over on Wall Street, the S&P 500 has confirmed our analysis by signaling an end to the recent pull back and a return to increasing stock prices in line with its dominant trend (the Uptrend) -

The S&P 500 is rising, and gathering momentum, for another attack at the 1334/1350 resistance block. If/when it manages a breakout above 1350 then we can all look forward to some fast increases in share prices on both sides of the Atlantic.

The DJIA simply confirms this scenario as it has recovered and is now putting in another attempt to break above the 12300 resistance level -

US tech. stocks could also soon offer some fine growth opportunities (again) as the Nasdaq 100 manages to break back above the 2324 level resistance. There is a nice big ‘open’ resistance-free area above 2324 which could provide some exiting returns -

All in all then things are looking potentially quite rosy for share buying – but the emphasis, for the moment, has to be on the word ‘potentially’; each one of the major indices has resistance closely overhead and each has previously succumbed to and fallen back from that resistance. A second, or third, attempt to break above it could result in another sharp fall back rather than success.

Take care.

BARCLAYS BANK SHARES – ANALYSIS

Published on January 11, 2011 in Uncategorized. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , .

The recovery rally up from the low at 47p in Jan’09 didn’t find any resistance at the 235p level of the 25% retracement of the Mar’07 to Jan’09 bear run but the rally did not possess enough strength or support to manage a test of the 50% retracement level at 420p. This signalled an inherent weakness in the price.

Click on the chart to enlarge.

Then, from the high at 390 p in Sept’09 the price started to drift and it has remained in a congestion range (level highs and lows) ever since – although, of late, it has commenced to drift lower. The fact that the price is now underneath the level of its 30wk Moving Average is a sign of weakness and which, in turn, suggests that any price recovery is likely to be modest and short lived.

There is good support for the price at the 255p level where a triple low formation has now formed. This is, though, something of a two-edged sword; whilst the recent 3rd low should assist towards a reasonable rally a reversal and break below that 3rd low at 255p could encourage a steeper decline. And, given the stock’s current weakness this has to be a serious possibility.

Should the price fall below 255p then it is likely to move down to the 220p area before finding any real support.

For Buyers – Not a good time to be buying this stock – wait for the price to get back above its 30wk Moving Average as that could signal a potential rally up to the 390p area (but check with us first).

For Those Holding – You are holding more in hope of a good rally than the expectation of one. The share is weak and is, therefore, just as liable to a down move as it is to a rally. And, of course, you suffer a ‘lost opportunity’ cost whilst Barclays continues in its congestion range when other stocks are ramping up!

Alan Saunders

Chief Analyst, ShareHunter.com                     11 Jan 2011.

A 150% Increase – with More to Come

Published on December 31, 2010 in Uncategorized. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , .

We all know that past performance is not necessarily a good guide to future performance particularly when dealing in stocks and shares and also when 2011 may be a darn site trickier than 2010 was for trading shares and for holding a portfolio of shares.

The ShareHunter ‘Trader’ performance is a direct result of the investment strategy that we provide for all subscribers; the strategy itself is the culmination of many years of trading experience – and it works, allowing profits to roll , capital to be largely protected and to avoid the big losers.

Starting from the 1st July 2009 the illustrative track record of all of the ‘Trader’ trades, called in FTSE 350 stocks and based on the ShareHunter trading Strategy, is today showing a remarkable 150% increase in capital (gross, excluding trading costs) – and, despite today’s disappointing fall in the FTSE (down 71 points), this total will increase further as 15 out of the current 18 open trades have stops that are at or above the entry price.

No surprise perhaps that our chief analyst, Alan Saunders, was voted Runner-up Research Analysts of the Year in the Daily Telegraph Wealth Awards 2010!

You should not make any decision based solely on past performance, share prices go down as well as up. But the fact that there are tough times ahead is the very reason why, we suggest, that you should consider using the ShareHunter service. Not only might it help you to make good money in the coming months (and have some fun doing it) but also it should help you avoid the pitfalls and problems commonly experienced by many, if not most, investors and to protect the majority of your capital. Our subscribers did not get caught out when Royal Bank of Scotland fell by over 90% – nor in any of the other frights of the last few years and neither will they, or you if you are with us, get caught by similar tales of woe in 2011/12.

The ShareHunter ‘Trader’ service only requires your attention for about 5 minutes around 8.30 am. (to check and change Stop price orders) and about 15 minutes around 11.00am (to consider and decide upon the trades suggested that day). It is suitable for both Spread Betting and for CFD accounts.

2011 could be a year in which many people will lose a lot of money on the stock market. Please don’t be one of them. Joining ShareHunter could be the way to both profit and protect.

With good wishes for the coming year,

Alan

@ShareHunter

The FTSE’s Next Move

Published on November 29, 2010 in Education and Market Reviews. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , .

The only good thing that we can find to say about last week is that the FTSE did not close on its low for the week. This does show that there is some support for the index and that it is still far from being a basket case.

Click on chart to enlarge.

The 5770/5970 area resistance is proving a problem and is preventing the FTSE from jumping ahead. If next week’s trading doesn’t show a positive result (i.e. a close that is a good bit higher than its open) then there can be little doubt that the index is likely to fall further, probably down to the 5400 level area.

Interestingly its sister, and more UK reflective index, the FTSE 250, is still showing a more positive outlook. However it must stay above 10580 during the coming week if it is to be able to pull upwards again rather than fall back towards the 10150 level area.

The current trend indicators show as follows -

Positive                Neutral                  Negative

The FTSE 100                4                           4                            1

The FTSE 250                8                           1                            0

The S&P 500                 3                           6                             0

The DJIA                        6                           3                             0

The NASQ 100             9                           0                             0

You may draw your own conclusions but it says to us that nothing can be taken for granted; there are no strong signals to suggest that there is a crash in the offing but then there are not sufficient positive indicators to suggest that higher prices are a given certainty.

We conclude with the same observation as last week – the US markets (with the notable exception of a strong Nasd. 100) and the FTSE could go either way although with the current trends being slightly positive, even if a bit weak, the jury does look likely to vote 7:12 in favour of an upmove next week.

The FTSE 100 – Where to Next?

Published on November 8, 2010 in Education and Market Reviews. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , .

Last week the FTSE managed to close above 5770 (at 5875) after quite a strong performance over the week. So what is now needed is for the index to close this coming week at or above 5875.

If it can do that then there is no doubt that it is on its way up to the 5970/6050 area (where it is likely to meet more resistance).

The fact that the FTSE will have re-entered a ‘Stage2’ Uptrend with a strong close at the end of this week means that the 5970/6050 resistance area may not cause anything more serious than a short term sideways move before the index continues to rise up the scale. And that means that the FTSE could be on its way up towards an eventual test of the resistance created by the all-time-high of 6750 created in June, July and October 2007.

But, there is a deal of resistance to overcome before we can look forward to that. And we continue with our worry that the current rally is not receiving sufficient ‘pit-prop’ support to sustain it.

Both the FTSE and the S&P 500 indices are failing to achieve much apparent support from the Momentum Indicator and this is a worrying feature. Note how the recent rises on both indices is not matched by anything like the same rise on the MI. The MI is a longer term indicator and it can take some months before its signals have an effect – so you might understand our concern that not everything in the stock market’s garden is pointing to the sunny uplands -

and that there is a risk of a sharp, and possibly severe, correction building, unseen in the background. So don’t get carried away with the upside potential of this stock market. Not yet anyway.