Tag Archive for 'SSAS'

The Stock Market – to Rally or Crash?

Published on May 16, 2010 in Uncategorized. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , .

Every one of the major market indices that we report on every week is currently testing the level of its 30wk moving average (‘MA’). Why is this worthy of comment? It is because it is a common result of a test of the MA that the index (or share price for an individual stock) changes direction.

So for an index that has been falling and is now testing the level of its MA it is quite possible for it to now change direction and to rally. And that is exactly what might now happen for all of the major indices – but with the possible exception of the FTSE 100. We need the price action this week to confirm the direction change but the FTSE 250, the FTSE SmCap, the S&P 500, the Dow Jones Industrials and the Nasdaq 100 are all fallen to, and are now testing, the current level of their MAs and starting to bounce back.

The exception is the FTSE 100 which has already fallen through its MA. It has found temporary support at the important 5108 level and has managed to rally slightly – but only up to the level of its MA. In other words, if the usual result of a test of the MA level – a change in direction – occurs then the FTSE is due to fall again, not rally.

In this regard it is the FTSE that is out step with the rest of the major indices. It was only a couple of weeks ago when the FTSE led the rest of the world by falling sharply when all the other indices were reflecting an upward tendency that we suggested that it was unlikely that the FTSE was leading the way! We will not then make the same claim now as we could be a  wrong again. However, it has to be observed that with 5 other major indices suggesting that a rally may now be due the bias favours a rally for the FTSE 100 up from the 5108 support level.

The alternative scenario is that, if the FTSE is, again, showing the world’s markets the way to go then all are due for some steep falls and the FTSE itself will be due a damaging fall and, perhaps, to move into a longer term ‘bear’ trend. But, for the moment, this is the more distant scenario.

Individual market commentary and illustrative charts are available at http://www.sharehunter.com/news/market-review/

Which Way the FTSE This Week?

Published on March 14, 2010 in Uncategorized. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , .

In summary;

Not much to be said this week. Although we worry that we are tempting fate…it can be said that the main market indices present a reasonably benign picture at present (that could be the cue for a major market upset!!).

The FTSE looks to be en route to a test of resistance at the 5770 level and the FTSE 250 has, at last, started to show some gains and could be on for an attempt at the 10500 level.

It will really depend on Wall Street; the Dow is still not showing much enthusiasm for higher prices although the S&P 500 has now broken out above the very important 1122 level and could, if its support continues, head on up for a test of the 1290 level. But that is quite a way ahead yet. The important thing (for the FTSE) is that the US markets do not weaken.

The Uptrends remain in place on all of the major indices and their moving averages continue sloping upwards so any correction is likely to be short lived and relatively minor (there we go tempting fate again).

Individual market commentary and illustrative charts are available at http://www.sharehunter.com/news/market-review/