Tag Archive for 'share prices'

The FTSE ‘Dam’ is due to Burst Soon

Published on September 9, 2010 in Education and Market Reviews. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , .

The rise in the FTSE last week has taken the index to the same level that it was at 10 months ago. Nothing exceptional about that, you may say. But the point is that this is getting towards the end of the historical maximum period before the market ‘blows off’ – one way or the other.

Looking back over the last 9 years of the FTSE 100 index you can see from the chart below (click on it to enlarge it) that each time there has been a lengthy sideways period (of Consolidation or Distribution) it has been followed by a significant move -

It is during such follow-up moves, up or down, that significant profits can be made.

The current period is further enhanced by the extra compression that comes from the coming together of the two moving averages. These two are good trend identifiers but, when ‘mixing’ together they indicate a building compression which will, eventually, be released by a strong move. And, after 10 months of sidling along, such a move is due soon.

All of this tends to support our view that this Autumn will see the FTSE move decisively.

We are ready for it. Are you?

Is the FTSE heading to 6000?

Published on September 6, 2010 in Uncategorized. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , .

The FTSE 100’s 226 point rise last week was a show of strength and we continue to be impressed by the support provided by the 5010-5350 block area which has, over the last year, prevented the index from plummeting.

This area of 5010 to 5350 remains key to the FTSE’s future. If the index can stay, above 5350 then the rally will continue and the trend should change to an uptrend with 6000 then becoming a real possibility.

A large and decisive move is likely to get underweigh this Autumn and, on our current analysis of the technical signals and despite the positive signals of last week’s rise, that move is likely to be down; and sharply down at that. Probably to 4800 and then lower. At best we would put the current ‘odds’ at 60:40 on a down move.

Reasons why and the detailed forecast for the FTSE’s next move are given in our latest ‘FTSE Forecast’ which is available on request to Admin@ShareHunter.com

Investment Risk and the Stock Market

Published on August 24, 2010 in Education. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , .

One of our members has, very sensibly, enquired as to the ’safety’ of our ‘Stop-Loss’ protection system.  Our answer includes the following comments:

One of the reasons why we restrict ourselves to the FTSE 350 stocks and currently, in this volatile market period, eschew Small Cap and AIM stocks is that it is very rare for any such large and liquid shares to suffer the sort of calamitous collapse of up to 50% overnight. That, of course, doesn’t mean that it is impossible but it is very unlikely.

It is possible for a gapped open to exceed our stop-loss price and it happens perhaps 1% to 2% of the time. As we use, and recommend, the tight money management rule of 1.5% of capital the resulting loss of, say, 2% or even 3% is far from calamitous and is recoverable.

Having said that, one should bear in mind that investing/trading on the stock market is a ‘risk’ business. The unforeseen, the exceptional, the ‘one off’ event is an ever present, if relatively low, risk. If one is not prepared to accept that risk then one should not be investing into shares of any nature or size.

Some of us suffered badly in the 1987 stock market crash when share prices tumbled by some 25% over two days (and the stock brokers took their phones off the hook so none of us could trade!!) but it is a different world now but I, for one, would not say that it could never happen again!

Controlling the risk, watching and managing each holding and minimising losses is the secret to making money on the stock market.

FTSE FORECAST

Published on July 19, 2010 in Uncategorized. 2 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , .

The latest forecast of where the FTSE is headed is now available and the future is not looking very bright.

Has The FTSE Bottomed Out?

Published on July 12, 2010 in Uncategorized. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , .

Our latest analysis of the FTSE shows that this rally may continue for a while but that the FTSE has NOT bottomed out. There is a lot of risk buying into this market at the present time. Ask for a copy of the latest analysis of the FTSE’s direction

Double Dip Recession

Published on June 30, 2010 in Education, Market Reviews and ShareHunter News. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , , , .

According to press comments over the last two days there is now a 60% to 80% chance of a double dip recession occuring. That means that it is likely that all that has been suffered by individuals, businesses and the economy as a whole over the last two years is going to be suffered all over again (for another two years??).

The Stock Market took a hammering in 2007 and 2008 so does this mean that it is going to take another hammerin in 2010 and 2011? The picture painted by our analysis suggests that it will. Over the past weeks and months we have been drawing attention to the increasing probability of an eventual break of the FTSE 100 index below the 5000-5100 area of support and to the likely result of that break being an eventual collapse down to the 3500 area.

Yesterday’s fall to the close at 4914 suggests that the collapse has, indeed, started. However, there are trwo important points to consider: Firstly, thsi may be nothing more than an isolated scare and the FTSE may bounce back and leave many ‘bears’ with red faces and nursing some trading losses. In other words, just as one swallow doesn’t make it summer so one day’s nasty move doesn’t make for a general collapse. But secondly, and more likely, if the FTSE closes below 5000 at the end of the week, on Friday, then this is a strong signal of worse to come – but it may not happen quickly and it may be early autumn before the more general and steep collapse occurs.

The dotted red arrows show the potential collapse -

A subscription oue weekly  ‘The FTSE FORECAST’ report will keep you abreast of all the changes and likely future direction of the FTSE and other World Stock Markets.  For details Copy this address and post it into your browser – https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=8NCBVH3W6UPCE

The FTSE – Where Next?

Published on June 1, 2010 in Market Reviews and ShareHunter News. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , , , .

This no-nonsense weekly guide based on experienced and well researched technical analysis  will give you the extra confidence of knowing what is happening to the FTSE and why.

Are share prices likely to continue to increase? How far is the FTSE likely to rise? Is the stock market really about to crash? When will it be a good time to buy or to sell-short? Might it be sensible to cash some of your funds or shares now?

These, and many other questions can be answered by – ‘The FTSE-Where Next?’

It will give you an insight into what is happening now on the Stock Market and what is likely to happen next.

With ‘The FTSE – Where Next?’ you will be able to make better investment decisions as well as developing a confidence and certainty from knowing what’s going on and what is about to happen.

Is the worst over for the stock market? Are shares now safe?

Published on May 12, 2010 in Uncategorized. 0 Comments Tags: , , , .

The answer to our question is…Perhaps, but the stock market is not out of the woods yet.

Over the last few weeks the risks have been much increased so we ceased to call new trade alerts just before the FTSE began to tumble. That does not mean that we are brilliant or clairvoyant but it does mean that our daily analysis of the market trends is accurate and effective.

The current state of play is that the FTSE is still below potential resistance (at the 5400 level) in spite of the big rise earlier this week. This resistance could send the index sharply back down again; otherwise, if 5400 is overcome then share prices should move strongly ahead again and back up to test the 5770 level resistance. All this can be seen from the chart –

Interestingly, and perhaps indicating that there is an underlying and growing strength in the market as a whole, the FTSE 250 index is far more positive than its big sister (the FTSE 100). The FTSE 250 has found and bounced up from support at the 9610 level and is racing back up to test the 10500 level again. This is shown on the chart below –

So, nothing is for definite just yet. Risk remains above the norm although not nearly so high as it has been recently. The answer has to be to invest cautiously (as you know we started again, gently, this morning) and to keep a very close eye on the likely future direction of all share prices.

The FTSE 100 – Is it going Up or Down?

Published on February 28, 2010 in Education and Market Reviews. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , .

Last week’s efforts by the markets, and by the FTSE 100 in particular, leaves the impression that the index exhausted itself with its effort in bouncing up off of its 30wk Moving Average the week before. It is as though it felt it had done too much and used too much energy as last week’s efforts lacked any real signs of continuing strength.

An inconclusive week which, just to make life difficult, could be followed this coming week with either renewed energy and a rise up the scale or an absence of buying interest and a fall back towards another test of its (still rising) 30wk.MA.

So, it does look as though we are due for another inconclusive week of sideways movement and whipsawing tendencies as we have all experienced over the last few months (just look at the short term chart of the FTSE 250 index and note how long it has just meandered sideways).

But all of this will change, and probably soon. The market will not go sideways for ever. Our technical signals are far from fully positive, in fact there are several negative signals which hint at the growing potential for a sudden collapse of the markets.

But that will only happen if the FTSE 100 falls below the 5100 level (the equivalent for the FTSE 250 is the 8888 level) and whilst the indices stay above these level there remains the possibility of a return to upward moving share prices. But that will only become a real possibility if the S&P 500 index can get back up to, and stay above,above the 1122 level and that is not going to be easy for it to achieve as it too has a number of negative signals that suggest a sharp decline is still a danger.

So, the message remains one of ‘no change – but change coming soon’. It is a ‘Baden-Powell’ message – “Be Prepared”

Individual market commentary and illustrative charts are available at http://www.sharehunter.com/news/market-review/

Stock Market Armaggedon Deferred Not Cancelled

Published on February 21, 2010 in Uncategorized. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , .

It is satisfying that our analysis was correct in that the 30wk Moving Average of each of the main indices performed as we said it should and had the effect of changing the direction of the index. Each index fell and then reversed back up the scale from the meeting point with its MA and created new trend lows in so doing (but, significantly, not higher lows).

We would tempting fate to say that worst of the danger (of a collapse of share prices) has now passed; at best all we can say now is that it has been deferred! The markets are not out of the woods yet; there are still too many potentially negative signals for us to be able to feel confident that another test of the moving averages support levels will not be made soon.

For the FTSE 100 the situation is that it must climb to and break above the January high at 5600 before a climb to test 5770 becomes a real prospect. Whilst the FTSE remains below 5600 there remains the probability of a fall back to the 5100 area.

So, as the Uptrends are still in place – although weaker than in the July/December ’09 period – we are back to eschewing all but the very occasional ( and only very obvious) ‘short’ trade alert and will stay with identifying the ‘long’ side of potential trades.

Individual market commentary and illustrative charts are available at http://www.sharehunter.com/news/market-review/