Tag Archive for 'Royal Bank of Scotland'

Investment Risk and the Stock Market

Published on August 24, 2010 in Education. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , .

One of our members has, very sensibly, enquired as to the ’safety’ of our ‘Stop-Loss’ protection system.  Our answer includes the following comments:

One of the reasons why we restrict ourselves to the FTSE 350 stocks and currently, in this volatile market period, eschew Small Cap and AIM stocks is that it is very rare for any such large and liquid shares to suffer the sort of calamitous collapse of up to 50% overnight. That, of course, doesn’t mean that it is impossible but it is very unlikely.

It is possible for a gapped open to exceed our stop-loss price and it happens perhaps 1% to 2% of the time. As we use, and recommend, the tight money management rule of 1.5% of capital the resulting loss of, say, 2% or even 3% is far from calamitous and is recoverable.

Having said that, one should bear in mind that investing/trading on the stock market is a ‘risk’ business. The unforeseen, the exceptional, the ‘one off’ event is an ever present, if relatively low, risk. If one is not prepared to accept that risk then one should not be investing into shares of any nature or size.

Some of us suffered badly in the 1987 stock market crash when share prices tumbled by some 25% over two days (and the stock brokers took their phones off the hook so none of us could trade!!) but it is a different world now but I, for one, would not say that it could never happen again!

Controlling the risk, watching and managing each holding and minimising losses is the secret to making money on the stock market.

Is the FTSE 100 Going Up or Down?

Published on August 23, 2010 in Education and Market Reviews. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , .

With the establishment of the Downtrend (which is now ‘in play’ for this index) there will always be occasional rallies but these are likely to be only temporary (generally 3 to 5 weeks); the index is currently suggesting that it is likely to return to the 4800 level area (the level of the July low) and then go lower to the 4630 level and, possibly, to 3500 before any serious support might be forthcoming.

There is now a 60% chance of the index falling to the 4630 area against a 40% chance of a rally to the 6000 area.

For more detail request a copy of ShareHunter’s latest  ‘FTSE Forecast’ report.

UK BANKS – Analysis

Published on August 5, 2010 in Uncategorized. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , .

Following on from our analysis of Barclays and RBS we have now completed analysis of LLoyds, HSBC and Standard Chartered Banks. The reports are available on email request to Admin@ShareHunter

The FTSE 250 – Going Up or Down?

Published on August 4, 2010 in Education, Market Reviews and ShareHunter News. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , .

A Technical Analysis of the FTSE 250 – as at 4th August 2010

The FTSE 250 is in a consolidation mode. This could result in one of two ways. If accumulation (of stock holdings) is taking place then the index is likely to start to quicken the pace of the recent rally and so move quickly up to a test of the 10500 level and then, probably, on up to 11000.

Or, if distribution (reduction of stock holdings) is taking place (advantage of the recent rally being taken by the professional ‘in-the-know’ money) then the index is due to relapse and to fall back to the 9610 support level and then, probably, on down to the important 8888 level before support may reappear.

Of these two scenarios, the first is the more likely outcome on present signals -

(Click on the chart to enlarge).

The reasons being that the index’s 30wk MA is still slanting upwards and the index value is maintaining its position above it. Also the 13 and 34 wk exponential MAs (not shown on the chart) are still confirming the continuance of the Uptrend. Volumes are average or relatively low which indicates that not a lot of supply (selling) is coming onto the market which is a positive sign.

Conclusion: the bias is to the upside but caution is required as 10500 resistance is overhead which could send the index back down

UK Banks – Analysis

Published on July 30, 2010 in Uncategorized. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , .

We have just completed a revised analysis of Barclays and RBS.  a copy is available on request

Don’t get suckered in to this market – the FTSE could be about to change direction

Published on July 27, 2010 in Uncategorized. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , .

Let’s begin by admitting that no analytical system of the Stock Market is perfect and always 100% right. But there are some technical signals that do tend to ‘work’ more often than not and it is, therefore, worth taking note of them as and when they occur and adjusting one’s trading accordingly.

One such technical signal is when the index (or stock price) meets the level of its 30 week moving average (‘MA’); when it does the index, or share price, will often change direction at, or near, the meeting point. If the price has fallen to the MA level then, often, it will turn back upwards; if it has risen to the MA level then, often, it will reverse and fall back.

As you can see from this chart over the last few years the FTSE has changed direction each time it has met with or come close to the level of its 30 wk  moving average and it is at that level again now -

So, it would be wise to take notice of this and to hold fire on any new share purchases or long trades of the FTSE until the picture becomes clearer.

Another point to bear in mind (no pun intended) is that the FTSE is currently in a technical downtrend and within any downtrend there will often be ‘bear’ trend rallies that last for between 3 and 5 weeks. This week is the 4th week of the current rally!

FTSE FORECAST

Published on July 19, 2010 in Uncategorized. 2 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , .

The latest forecast of where the FTSE is headed is now available and the future is not looking very bright.

Is RBS About to Rocket?

Published on March 4, 2010 in Uncategorized. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , .

This is a headline that we have just seen. Our answer is “No it isn’t – not yet anyway”.

For anyone who buys RBS shares now, in the hope that they are about to rocket upwards, would be a high risk venture suitable only to those who welcome the adrenalin rush of trading ‘penny’ stocks.

RBS shares are, however, showing movement within a ‘Basing’ trend ( which started from the Jan’09 end of the steep Downtrend). The next stage, after the Basing stage, for this share should indeed be an Uptrend but this will not occur until the price has succeeded in rising above the resistance that will be presented at the 58p level. Only then should it be considered as a ‘buy’ for medium to long term investors.

RBS - wkly2(Click on the chart to enlarge).

For (shorter term) trdaers however there will be a ‘buy’ opportunity presented when the price rises above the resistance presented at the 43p level (this being the 50% retracement of the Aug-Dec’09 bear run (see the daily price chart below). Today the price is breaking above the 38p resistance and this could be the start of a short run up to the 43p level and, if the price should manage to get above 43p then there is a very good chance that it could move quickly up to the 58p level. So there could be a short term possible gain of some 10% if the price continues up to 43p (where it is likely to turn over again. But this hardly represents a “rocket increase” as some suggest!

RBS - dly2

For the moment, we would suggest that only those with deep pockets and not given to anxiety attacks should consider buying RBS shares.

RELY ON THE RELIABLE  -  TECHNICAL RESEARCH AND ANALYSIS FROM SHAREHUNTER.COM

A Genuine Share Tips Service

Published on January 11, 2010 in Education and ShareHunter News. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , .

Many financial newsletter and share tipping publishers have a business model of selling a very cheap service (promising, for example, ‘a red-hot tip a day’) in order to attract masses of customers and would be traders and they then offer a very expensive service as an ‘up-sell’. This expensive service will take the form of a “can’t lose” method of trading stocks or Forex or of a ‘trading university’ course. In both cases there is usually a 3 or 4 tier program each costing several hundreds of pounds or dollars, sometimes thousands.

One common denominator is that the purchaser is left with a great wadge of information much of which is pretty useless in guiding him or her towards what to invest into, when and how. The stock market is so complex and so changeable and capable of huge short term changes in volatility that many of the ‘can’t lose’ systems are pretty worthless as no allowance is made for the changes in the tempo and sentiment of the market.

Also, most of the systems which are sold at high price do not actually help the investor-trader to discover what he or she should be investing into; which shares are ‘best buys’ today and tomorrow? When should you take profits? How should you set and maintain your stop-loss and profit-protection prices for each trade allowing for the different price tempos of each share? How can you decide if you should buy a share or sell it short? What is the dominant trend of the relevant stock market index?Why is Money-Management so fundamentally important to earning money fro the stock market?

At ShareHunter we provide answers to all these questions and on a constant daily basis. No other share tipping service provides such an in-depth and detailed ‘hand-holding’ share trading service. We don’t just show you which shares are today’s likely best buys – and why, but we also give daily updates of suggested stop and target prices so that you remain on top of your trading position at all times and know exactly what to expect from it.

And with a sparkling track record of making profits (please email a request for a copy) we know that we give value.

In fact we try to give more than we get. We try to make sure that the monthly subscription to ShareHunter is earned several times over by each subscriber in the form of profits from his or her share trades.

Try us. Take the free one month’s trial and see for yourself what it is like to have someone with experience and knowledge at, and on, your side.

BANK SHARES – IS THIS THE BOTTOM?

Published on December 4, 2009 in Education, Market Reviews and ShareHunter News. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , , , .

Standard Bank (stan) and HSBC (hsba) continue in Uptrend and so hint at higher prices to come whilst Barclays (barc) is suffering a 20% price fall from its October high and is not presenting such a promising future at the moment but it is Royal Bank of Scotland (rbs) and Lloyds (lloy) that are the real lemons – leaving a bitter aftertaste.

Both RBS and Lloyds remain in Downtrend; the same downtrend that started in July 2007 and identified and alerted by ShareHunter at the time. With RBS at 34p the possibility that it may test again its all-time-low at 10p (Jan ‘09) becomes a probability with the downtrend remaining in force.

For Lloyds the position is even worse. Those investors who bought (against the trend) when the price moved up in March and again in August to the plateau at the 110p area are now nursing another severe financial headache with last week’s collapse back down to the 55p area.That collapse represents an overnight 50% loss of the capital those buyers invested.

But it could all have been so easily avoided. At ShareHunter we have two rules, given to members, which are designed to avoid such ‘avoidable’ losses – 1) Never trade contrary to the dominant trend (i.e. don’t buy in a downtrend) and 2) Never (ever!) try to guess the bottom (of a stock or of the market). More money is lost by investors trying to guess a bottom price of a stock or of the market than for any other reason.

In fact, perhaps the most expensive words in the English language are …”it can’t go any lower”!! It is not just the Panto season that let’s us answer …”Oh yes it can”!.

At ShareHunter we are always available to provide a free opinion of a stock before you buy.

Click on the chart to enlarge -

LLOYDS Bank