The current technical analysis of the-
- FTSE 100, the FTSE 250
- FTSE SmCap
- S & P 500
- DJIA
- NASDAQ 100
ANALYSIS FOR THE PERIOD – 6th September 2010 to 12th September 2010
The Overall Market Rating (OMR) , below, represents the percentage of stocks in each index in Stages 1 and 2 (a potential or an actual Uptrend);
An OMR below 50 indicates a ‘bear’ market and above 50 is an indication of a ‘bull’ market. (The figures in brackets show the OMR for the previous week) -
| hisIn: |
Stage1 |
Stage2 |
Stage3 |
Stage4 |
Overall Mkt Rating |
FTSE 100
|
22% |
20% |
33% |
25% |
43 (43) |
S&P 500
|
25% |
15% |
26% |
34 % |
40(40) |
The Overall Market Rating for the both FTSE 350 and the S&P 500 have swung away from being definitive indications of Uptrend to below the 50 rating and, as such, they now indicate a Downtrend and the possible start of a longer and steep down turn.
Identifying the Trend -
Stage 1 - Accumulation/Stock Basing Stage 3 – Distribution/Topping out
Stage 2 – Uptrend/Rising Prices Stage 4 – Downtrend/Declining Prices
Below, we provide two charts for each of the five market indices analysed. The shorter term (3+ year) chart allows easier recognition of some of the more recent features that we may comment on and then a longer term (8+ year) chart which shows the important highs and lows of previous years. We have provided longer term charts this week (up to 13 years) as it helps to illustrate the comaprative performance and absence of long term growth in the markets. Please click on each chart to enlarge.
FTSE 100 - In a ‘Stage 3′ Distribution/Topping Trend – (selling or buying but great care needed) -
With an increase of some 226 points the index benefitted from some good support last week and it now remains to be seen if this will lead to further rises in the coming weeks or if the support was but temporary. The key support area remains as 5010 to 5350. If the index can stay above 5350 then the rally will continue and the trend should change back to an Uptrend but, if it falls below 5010 then (considerably) lower prices will follow. The bias of our analysis still suggests that the index is likely to return to the 4750 level area but, after the confirmation of support over the past few weeks the possibilty of a rise to the 6000 level is showing itself.
Chart (3+ year) -
Chart (8+-year) -
FTSE 250 – In a ‘Stage 3′ Distribution trend ( buying or selling but great care needed) -
This index has managed, so far, to stay above the support level at 9610 and last week it showed an impressive bounce up from that level. Importantly, it is staying above the level of its 30wk moving average which, itself, is continuming to slope upwards. This index is continuing to hold its own and, so far, has not succumbed to a swing towards a Downtrend but it is very important that the index stays above the level of its moving average. Should it weaken and fall below it then that could be the start of an eventual slide down to the important support level at 8888. But, in continuing to stay above it the index is showing that a rise to the 10,500 level is more than likely.
Chart(3+ year) -
Chart(8+ year) -
FTSE SmCap – In a ‘Stage 3′ Distribution trend (buying or selling but only very selectively and care is needed) –
The index is still travelling sideways between the support level at 2700 and the resistance level at 2910 as it has been for almost a year now. If the 2700 support level should fail then this index is very likely to next visit the 2425 level to look for support there and could fall all the way down to the 2300 area. This index does not look strong; it is currently straddling (and testing) its 30wk moving average (currently at the 2815 level). To rise above it will show sttrength and potential for further rises; to fall back below it will show weakness and potyential for a fall. Great care is needed as individual stocks may be difficult to trade at a reasonable price if a slide does get going. Even without a slide, this index is suggesting that little is likely to be gained from trading smaller cap stocks at the present time.
Chart(3+ year) -
Chart(8+ year) -
S&P 500 -In a ‘Stage 3′ Distribution?Topping Trend – (buying or selling but great care needed) –
It is a significant warning that the index is now, for the third time inrecent months, testing the strength of the resistance created by the important 1111-1122 area. If it can get above that area then it could resume an Uptrend but to stay below the 1111 level, especially after a third test of it, would be a signal of significant weakness and the propensity for a steep fall. It also continues to remain below the level of its 30wk moving average (which is now at the 1115 level) which signals weakness so the bias is still, at the moment, to the downside.
Chart(3+ year) -
Chart(8+ year) -
DOW JONES IND – In a ‘Stage 3′ Distribution trend – (buying or selling but care needed) -
Five weeks ago this index succeeded in breaking out above the resistance of the 10370 level after 12 weeks of trying but it then failed to find support to sustain the rally and it fell back below it;last week it mounted another attack at the resistance created by this level. It’s problem is that this index is still below the level of its 30 wk moving average as this indicates an underlying weakness. There is potential for the index to rise above the 10370 level but to sustain that break, should it occur, it has to break above its moving average as well. Otherwise there is potential for a bigger fall.
Chart (3+ year) -
Chart(8+ year) -
NASDAQ 100 - In a ‘Stage 3′ Distribution trend ( buying or selling but great care needed) -
The rally up from the support of the 1740 level has taken the index up to meet the level of its 30wk moving average (currently at the 1877 level) to a test of the resistance there. Should it manage to break above it then higher prices would follow as the index should then rise towards the 2040 level but, should this attempt fail, then the price is likely to fall back sharply to the 1740 level.
Chart (3+ year) -
Chart (8+ year) -
If you have any questions or would like more information or would like to discuss market trends then do please email us at
sharehunter@btinternet.com
06/09/2010
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