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Double Dip Recession

Published on June 30, 2010 in Education, Market Reviews and ShareHunter News. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , , , .

According to press comments over the last two days there is now a 60% to 80% chance of a double dip recession occuring. That means that it is likely that all that has been suffered by individuals, businesses and the economy as a whole over the last two years is going to be suffered all over again (for another two years??).

The Stock Market took a hammering in 2007 and 2008 so does this mean that it is going to take another hammerin in 2010 and 2011? The picture painted by our analysis suggests that it will. Over the past weeks and months we have been drawing attention to the increasing probability of an eventual break of the FTSE 100 index below the 5000-5100 area of support and to the likely result of that break being an eventual collapse down to the 3500 area.

Yesterday’s fall to the close at 4914 suggests that the collapse has, indeed, started. However, there are trwo important points to consider: Firstly, thsi may be nothing more than an isolated scare and the FTSE may bounce back and leave many ‘bears’ with red faces and nursing some trading losses. In other words, just as one swallow doesn’t make it summer so one day’s nasty move doesn’t make for a general collapse. But secondly, and more likely, if the FTSE closes below 5000 at the end of the week, on Friday, then this is a strong signal of worse to come – but it may not happen quickly and it may be early autumn before the more general and steep collapse occurs.

The dotted red arrows show the potential collapse -

A subscription oue weekly  ‘The FTSE FORECAST’ report will keep you abreast of all the changes and likely future direction of the FTSE and other World Stock Markets.  For details Copy this address and post it into your browser – https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=8NCBVH3W6UPCE

BP’s Share Price – How far will it fall?

Published on June 22, 2010 in Uncategorized. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , .

In fact it could be on the bottom now (but don’t buy it yet as you could be grabbing a falling knife!). There is an important support level for BP at 330p which it has touched, and bounced from (so far) today.

But, if it should close below 330p for two consecutive days then it is likely to carry on falling to the 270p level where it should find support. Failing that level would be serious and would see the price fall to 220p. Hence our suggestion that it might be best not to try and gusee the bottom but rather to wait until some confidence (and buying) returns to teh share price.

Trying to guess a bottom is always a mugs game and is fraught with danger. Best wait for a new, and higher, low to form so as to gain some confidence that the recovery has started – and it hasn’t yet!

FTSE on the edge

Published on June 9, 2010 in Education and Market Reviews. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , .

The FTSE continues to flirt with the 5000 level. This is a critical point as explained in our lates ‘The FTSE-Where Next?’ article.

From here the FTSE could bounce, it could crash, it could go sideways (before doing one or the other). Answers are in ‘The FTSE-Where Next?

The FTSE – Where Next?

Published on June 1, 2010 in Market Reviews and ShareHunter News. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , , , .

This no-nonsense weekly guide based on experienced and well researched technical analysis  will give you the extra confidence of knowing what is happening to the FTSE and why.

Are share prices likely to continue to increase? How far is the FTSE likely to rise? Is the stock market really about to crash? When will it be a good time to buy or to sell-short? Might it be sensible to cash some of your funds or shares now?

These, and many other questions can be answered by – ‘The FTSE-Where Next?’

It will give you an insight into what is happening now on the Stock Market and what is likely to happen next.

With ‘The FTSE – Where Next?’ you will be able to make better investment decisions as well as developing a confidence and certainty from knowing what’s going on and what is about to happen.

The Biggest Buy Signal You Have Ever Seen???

Published on May 28, 2010 in Education, Market Reviews and ShareHunter News. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , .

We have just read an article with this heading. OK the article does include a number of “maybe’s” so it is perhaps written with a tongue in cheek but we feel that it is a dangerous claim to make so publicly as many people will not read the full article and will be thinking that some expert is calling this stage of the FTSE as a huge buying opportunity.

It IS NOT. This week’s rises on the FTSE have been marginal and far from decisive. Indeed, this week could be the very week that shapes the start of an almighty crash in share values. Please do not get carried away and think and act as if the market is going to burst up towards 6000 (as that careless article claims). It might but the risk is that it might not and the FTSE might instead tank down to 5000 and then on down to 4750.

The ShareHunter  Review of  ‘The FTSE- Where Next?’ will  explain and illustrate why and will be available over this weekend. Just ask us for a copy.

The FTSE – Up or Down? Is it going to Crash?

Published on May 24, 2010 in Market Reviews and ShareHunter News. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , .

Despite the doom and gloom in the press and all of the dire warnings of Armageddon to come (although there is no denying that is a possibility) all that has happened to the FTSE so far is that it has retraced back to its important support area of 5100/5000. Nothing new in that as it has been there 3 times in the last 3 months and, on each of those occasions, it has found support and rallied.

But this time it could be different, for the following (technical) reasons:

1. This time the FTSE has fallen below the level of its 30wk. moving average – a negative signal indicating a lack of support and

2. This is the 4th occasion that is has sought support at the 5100/5000 area – and historical records show that the 4th occasion at the same level usually results in a break of that level; (not only that but, after a 4th occasion, the following action can be fast and steep).

So, there is the possibility that the FTSE is going to plummet down to the 4747 level and, possibly, then a lot further (down to 3500) but, for the moment, we must wait to see if support is forthcoming because if it is – on this 4th occasion – then the FTSE could rally back up to the 5400 area.This scenario does not make for easy trading; ‘shorts’ look to be the order of the day but would be stopped out if a rally does ensue. ‘Longs’ are perhaps even more dangerous just now as a price rally may be very short lived as there is a real danger of a price collapse.

Of the other markets, the S&P 500 has tumbled back down to its important support level at 1100 and it is displaying signals of weakness so the danger is that it could, soon, take a nose dive down to the 940 level area if support is not forthcoming this week. Much the same dismal picture applies to the DJIA where increasing weakness is suggesting the index might collapse by over 1000 points, down to mthe 8860 area. The Nasdaq 100 is currently resting and testing for support at the level of its 30wk. moving average. If it breaks below this it is likely to slip all the way down to the 1629 level area.

Individual market commentary and illustrative charts are available at http://www.sharehunter.com/news/market-review/

The Stock Market – to Rally or Crash?

Published on May 16, 2010 in Uncategorized. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , .

Every one of the major market indices that we report on every week is currently testing the level of its 30wk moving average (‘MA’). Why is this worthy of comment? It is because it is a common result of a test of the MA that the index (or share price for an individual stock) changes direction.

So for an index that has been falling and is now testing the level of its MA it is quite possible for it to now change direction and to rally. And that is exactly what might now happen for all of the major indices – but with the possible exception of the FTSE 100. We need the price action this week to confirm the direction change but the FTSE 250, the FTSE SmCap, the S&P 500, the Dow Jones Industrials and the Nasdaq 100 are all fallen to, and are now testing, the current level of their MAs and starting to bounce back.

The exception is the FTSE 100 which has already fallen through its MA. It has found temporary support at the important 5108 level and has managed to rally slightly – but only up to the level of its MA. In other words, if the usual result of a test of the MA level – a change in direction – occurs then the FTSE is due to fall again, not rally.

In this regard it is the FTSE that is out step with the rest of the major indices. It was only a couple of weeks ago when the FTSE led the rest of the world by falling sharply when all the other indices were reflecting an upward tendency that we suggested that it was unlikely that the FTSE was leading the way! We will not then make the same claim now as we could be a  wrong again. However, it has to be observed that with 5 other major indices suggesting that a rally may now be due the bias favours a rally for the FTSE 100 up from the 5108 support level.

The alternative scenario is that, if the FTSE is, again, showing the world’s markets the way to go then all are due for some steep falls and the FTSE itself will be due a damaging fall and, perhaps, to move into a longer term ‘bear’ trend. But, for the moment, this is the more distant scenario.

Individual market commentary and illustrative charts are available at http://www.sharehunter.com/news/market-review/

The FTSE 100 Index

Published on April 8, 2010 in Education, Market Reviews and ShareHunter News. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , .

As we suggested some weeks ago the 5770 level for the FTSE 100 is acting as a level of resistance. The index has spent all of this week testing this level and trying to get above it but is has failed. And today the stock market has seen a substantial retracement.

WE doubt that this will be the start of a longer and stepper decline – not yet anyway. It is likely that the index will recover over the next few days and have another bash at getting above 5770 but the amount of resistance being met does increase the risk of a steeper decline so it will be best not to overcommit to this market at least until 5770 is left behind!

The FTSE to rise to 6160?

Published on March 21, 2010 in Market Reviews and ShareHunter News. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , .

The S&P 500 is testing the strength of the lastest potential resistance at the 1167 level. With this index having shown some strength during the last few weeks it may well find that the 1167 level presents no problem to its further upward progress. If it breaks above 1167 then it should continue all the way up to the 1290 level. This would be a significant increase even if it does take a month or two to get there and it will have positive effect on the UK market indices.

The FTSE 100 is, at the same time, very close to a test of overhead resistance at the 5770 level. The FTSE has pushed up quite strongly over the past few weeks so it may well take a pause, and put in a correction, at this level but all the signals currently suggest that 5770 shouldn’t prove too much of a resistance hurdle to overcome. If the FTSE 100 can get, and stay, above 5770 then, as we showed in our recent blog report, there is the juicy prospect of it climbing all the way to test the 6160 level.

During the last few weeks the FTSE 250 has also come out of its 6 month sideways doldrums and moved ahead. It is displaying an intention of rising to test the 10500 level.

So, for the moment, the markets continue to look relatively benign – but that can be dangerous and we must not take further increases for granted as it is often that the steepest crashes occur when least expected. Our one overriding concern is the picture being painted by our Momentum Indicator (‘MI’) which continues to suggest that the markets may soon make a meaningful top. That could happen next week or in a month or two’s time – but happen it will if the MI doesn’t soon put in a rise. Generally the market’s rise is unsustainable if the MI does not also rise. Here is the chart again –

FTSE 100 + mi

Individual market commentary and illustrative charts are available at http://www.sharehunter.com/news/market-review/

Which Way the FTSE This Week?

Published on March 14, 2010 in Uncategorized. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , .

In summary;

Not much to be said this week. Although we worry that we are tempting fate…it can be said that the main market indices present a reasonably benign picture at present (that could be the cue for a major market upset!!).

The FTSE looks to be en route to a test of resistance at the 5770 level and the FTSE 250 has, at last, started to show some gains and could be on for an attempt at the 10500 level.

It will really depend on Wall Street; the Dow is still not showing much enthusiasm for higher prices although the S&P 500 has now broken out above the very important 1122 level and could, if its support continues, head on up for a test of the 1290 level. But that is quite a way ahead yet. The important thing (for the FTSE) is that the US markets do not weaken.

The Uptrends remain in place on all of the major indices and their moving averages continue sloping upwards so any correction is likely to be short lived and relatively minor (there we go tempting fate again).

Individual market commentary and illustrative charts are available at http://www.sharehunter.com/news/market-review/