Tag Archive for 'Footsie'

The FTSE 250 – Going Up or Down?

Published on August 4, 2010 in Education, Market Reviews and ShareHunter News. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , .

A Technical Analysis of the FTSE 250 – as at 4th August 2010

The FTSE 250 is in a consolidation mode. This could result in one of two ways. If accumulation (of stock holdings) is taking place then the index is likely to start to quicken the pace of the recent rally and so move quickly up to a test of the 10500 level and then, probably, on up to 11000.

Or, if distribution (reduction of stock holdings) is taking place (advantage of the recent rally being taken by the professional ‘in-the-know’ money) then the index is due to relapse and to fall back to the 9610 support level and then, probably, on down to the important 8888 level before support may reappear.

Of these two scenarios, the first is the more likely outcome on present signals -

(Click on the chart to enlarge).

The reasons being that the index’s 30wk MA is still slanting upwards and the index value is maintaining its position above it. Also the 13 and 34 wk exponential MAs (not shown on the chart) are still confirming the continuance of the Uptrend. Volumes are average or relatively low which indicates that not a lot of supply (selling) is coming onto the market which is a positive sign.

Conclusion: the bias is to the upside but caution is required as 10500 resistance is overhead which could send the index back down

THE STOCK MARKET TO FOLLOW ENGLAND?

Published on June 28, 2010 in Education and Market Reviews. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , , , .

Last week the FTSE wiped off the previous two week’s gains. In so doing it fell back, yet again, to the important 5000-5100 level area to seek support. If support (in the form of active buyers) does not materialise then the FTSE is destined to follow England’s World Cup performance and to ‘bomb out’.

Our latest ‘FTSE FORECAST’ is available and explains in detail where the FTSE may now be heading.

A Review of the FTSE – as at 18 April

Published on April 18, 2010 in Uncategorized. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , .

On Friday morning 16th April we were anticipating a comment along the lines of ‘the 5770 level resistance has been broken and all that is now needed is another week of the same or higher prices to confirm the breakout’!

Then, on Friday afternoon, the US SEC dropped its ‘fraud’ bombshell on Goldman Sachs; Wall Street fell off and, of course, the FTSE had to follow.

So we are back to noting that the 5770 on the FTSE 100 is still playing its resistance role. Friday’s sell off looks to have been something of a knee jerk reaction and was not of major proportion. The dominant trend is still the Uptrend so there is every chance that the markets will resume their slow upward course during the coming week or the next and this should take the FTSE on up towards a test of the 6160 level area.

The alternative scenario is that last week could form the top of the recovery rally and could be the start of a longish retracement in share prices but there is really no solid evidence that this might be the case and so, on current evidence, we expect no more than a shallow correction at worst.

The FTSE 100 –

Individual market commentary and illustrative charts are available at http://www.sharehunter.com/news/market-review/

The FTSE 100 Index

Published on April 8, 2010 in Education, Market Reviews and ShareHunter News. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , .

As we suggested some weeks ago the 5770 level for the FTSE 100 is acting as a level of resistance. The index has spent all of this week testing this level and trying to get above it but is has failed. And today the stock market has seen a substantial retracement.

WE doubt that this will be the start of a longer and stepper decline – not yet anyway. It is likely that the index will recover over the next few days and have another bash at getting above 5770 but the amount of resistance being met does increase the risk of a steeper decline so it will be best not to overcommit to this market at least until 5770 is left behind!

The FTSE to Hit 6000?

Published on March 11, 2010 in Market Reviews and ShareHunter News. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , .

The 4 week correction in the FTSE 100 index from mid Jan to early Feb looked as though it was the big turning point and the end of the recovery rally that started from the 3500 low back in March ‘09. But the index’s 30wk moving average came to the rescue and (as often happens) caused the index to change direction again and to such an effect that, this week, it has made a new high for this remarkable recovery rally.

FTSE at 6000(Click on chart to enlarge)

There appears little immediate resistance on the short term horizon to suggest anything other than a short and minor correction so there can be little doubt that the FTSE will reach our target of 5770 soon and it looks likely to do so within the next two weeks. The dominant trend reamins the Uptrend and with this continuing it looks likely that the FTSE will in fact overshoot and try for the 6000 level.

However, even the 5900 area would take the index a bit too far ahead of its 30wk moving average for comfort and this is likely to be the point at which it decides that enough (exhuberance) is enough. A correction back to the 5200 level is then likely.

Will the FTSE go much higher?

Published on March 8, 2010 in Education and Market Reviews. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , .

The FTSE 100 moved ahead strongly last week, confirming an underlying strength.

The ‘change direction’ effect of meeting with its 30wk Moving Average continued to work for all the major indices last week and particularly for the FTSE 100.

With the S&P 500 in process of a (so far successful) test of its important support/resistance level at 1122 all looks to be well with the uptrends of the various markets.

But – and it is a worrying ‘but’ – whereas most of the technical signals for the S&P, the FTSE 100 and 250 and the Dow and Nasdaq 100 are nearly all positive we do have one worrying niggle; a signal that is just not producing the same positive vibes. It is our Momentum Indicator (“MI”).

In the past the MI has been a reliable early indicator of a looming market top and so we do take cognisance of it. Our concern is that this indicator is just not partying in anything like the same way as the indices. In fact, at present, it is travelling in a different direction when it should, if all was well, be moving in the same direction as the indices. The MI is suggesting to mus that the indices may well be putting in a top by reversing direction soon.

From the two charts below you can quickly see how both the FTSE and the S&P have moved upwards during the last week or two whereas the MI has continued to drift sideways or downwards.
FTSE + MIS&P + MI

If the markets are to continue upwards we would expect to see the MI also moving upwards. But it is refusing so to do. The indices and the MI are moving in different directions. Not a good sign.

Of course all of this could change anfd the MI join the ‘buying’ party but it could also be the case that the party is nearly over.

So, what to do?

Answer; Do not get carried away with the current level of enthusiasm and overcommit to this market. And, where you are committed, keep a close eye on your exit stop prices and keep them up to date.

Individual market commentary and illustrative charts are available at http://www.sharehunter.com/news/market-review/

Stock Market Armaggedon Deferred Not Cancelled

Published on February 21, 2010 in Uncategorized. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , .

It is satisfying that our analysis was correct in that the 30wk Moving Average of each of the main indices performed as we said it should and had the effect of changing the direction of the index. Each index fell and then reversed back up the scale from the meeting point with its MA and created new trend lows in so doing (but, significantly, not higher lows).

We would tempting fate to say that worst of the danger (of a collapse of share prices) has now passed; at best all we can say now is that it has been deferred! The markets are not out of the woods yet; there are still too many potentially negative signals for us to be able to feel confident that another test of the moving averages support levels will not be made soon.

For the FTSE 100 the situation is that it must climb to and break above the January high at 5600 before a climb to test 5770 becomes a real prospect. Whilst the FTSE remains below 5600 there remains the probability of a fall back to the 5100 area.

So, as the Uptrends are still in place – although weaker than in the July/December ’09 period – we are back to eschewing all but the very occasional ( and only very obvious) ‘short’ trade alert and will stay with identifying the ‘long’ side of potential trades.

Individual market commentary and illustrative charts are available at http://www.sharehunter.com/news/market-review/