Tag Archive for 'BP'

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How Low Can the FTSE Go?

Published on September 13, 2011 in Uncategorized. 0 Comments Tags: bank shares, Banks, Barclays, Bear market, BP, Bull market, CFD, CFDs, FTSE, FTSE 100, FTSE 250, FTSE 350, FTSE100, Lloyds, Market bottom, market rally, market trend, rally, RBS, Royal Bank of Scotland, share prices, share tips, sipp, SIPPS, spread betting, stock market collapse, stock market crash, stock market recovery, UK Banks, Wall Street.

Again this weekend, in our ‘FTSE Forecast’ weekly report we cautioned that the FTSE was likely to fall further this week – and Monday proved us right. But how low could the FTSE go? Has it bottomed out already? Or is there more downside to come?

Here is the chart of the FTSE 100 using weekly prices (which is the only way to properly determine the dominant trend of the market) -

The FTSE 100 is likely to fall back down again to the 4782 level where it will hope to find buyers jumping in so allowing it to rally back up the scale. But, if it fails to find sufficient support and falls, and closes, below 4782 then it will be destined to go quite a lot lower; as we have indicated in previous reports, probably down to the 3475 level area.

Analysis of the wider market doesn’t show any greater degree of support for a meaningful rally. The FTSE 250 looks likely to drift down towards a test for support at the 8850 level area -

It could prove to be a costly mistake to be buying into this market (other than on a very short term basis). Support from across the Atlantic looks very unlikely and the FTSE is in a Downtrend as its dominant trend and, whilst that remains in force, lower share prices are likely.

Beware The Siren Calls

Published on September 13, 2011 in Education and ShareHunter News. 0 Comments Tags: bank shares, Banks, Barclays, Bear market, BP, Bull market, CFD, CFDs, crash, FTSE, FTSE 350, FTSE Sectors, FTSE100, Lloyds, Moving Average, RBS, Royal Bank of Scotland, share prices, share tips, sipp, SIPPS, spread betting, stock market collapse, stock market crash, stock market recovery, UK Banks.

Increasingly we are reading ‘informed comment’ in the press that tells us that – “ looking to the long term equities now offer fantastic value” To which our response, just now, has to be …”Oh Yeah – by what yardstick is “fantastic value” being measured?”.

Looking at the long term chart, the answer has to be – against the 3500 level lows put in by the FTSE from 1995. But that is a very short lived, if not illusory yardstick. If you had bought at point “X” for the longer term then, at point “Y” you might have been happy, but at point “Z” it was all a waste of time -

(click on the chart to enlarge it)

“Buying for the longer term” is a ‘buy and hold’ philosophy which, in the modern market era, can be seen to be a high risk strategy. Why buy now when there could soon be a chance that you might be able to buy at point “EQ” – and then we will tell you when another point “A” looks likely.

Now, that is a strategy for the “longer term”!

The FTSE – Looking Over the Edge of the Cliff

Published on August 29, 2011 in Education and Market Reviews. 0 Comments Tags: bank shares, Banks, Barclays, Bear market, BP, Bull market, CFD, CFDs, crash, FTSE, FTSE 100, FTSE 250, FTSE 350, FTSE Sectors, Lloyds, Market bottom, market rally, RBS, Royal Bank of Scotland, share prices, share tips, sipp, SIPPS, spread betting, stock market, stock market collapse, stock market crash, stock market recovery, UK Banks.

We produce here the monthly price chart of the FTSE 100’s 27 year history. We do so in order to illustrate and emphasise the importance of the 4782 support level (that we identified some weeks ago) -

(Click on the chart to enlarge)

at Friday’s close the FTSE was at 5129 – some way below the halfway level of the month’s spread. This is a sign of its inherent weakness and says to us that the 4782 level is likely to be tested again soon.

And that is when its importance will be realised; if 4782 fails to provide support and the index falls below it then the FTSE 100 will be destined to fall towards a third test of the 3475 level.

However, there is the possibility that there will be some support at 4782 which will allow a short recovery rally (as bottom trawlers jump in and buy at what they perceive is “good value”) but the emphasis here is that it is likely to be a short lived rally as, unless the trend changes, the Downtrend will resume.

With the Downtrend established as the FTSE’s dominant trend there is a very real prospect that that is what is going to happen. (the old adage “the trend is your friend” holds good. If you know the current dominant trend then you have a pretty good idea of where the market is likely to go next.).

Free Advice for Lord Sugar (who bought bank shares last week!)

Published on August 19, 2011 in Education and ShareHunter News. 0 Comments Tags: bank shares, Banks, Barclays, Bear market, bottom trawling, BP, Bull market, CFD, CFDs, crash, FTSE, FTSE 250, FTSE100, Lloyds, Lord Sugar, Market bottom, market rally, market trend, momentum, rally, RBS, Royal Bank of Scotland, share prices, share tips, sipp, SIPPS, spread betting, stock market, stock market collapse, stock market crash, Stock Market indices, stock market recovery, stock prices, trend change, UK Banks.

Sir, ‘Bottom trawling’ is for losers. Far better not to guess that the bottom has been reached and to wait for the market to turn and change its dominant trend before trying to assess ‘good’ value.

Buying because a share looks cheap can be very costly – as you have just discovered.

ShareHunter subscribers knew not to buy last week (they also knew weeks ago that the crash was coming and they knew when to go short of shares to make some fat profits rather than looking to buy cheap).

There will come a point when shares represent a fantastic ‘buy’ opportunity but that is not yet and will only be after the bottom has been formed and confirmed. That way you will make money from your share purchases, sir.

The ‘FTSE Forecast’ – Accurately Points the Way for Investors and Traders

Published on August 15, 2011 in Education and ShareHunter News. 0 Comments Tags: 6000, bank shares, Banks, Barclays, Bear market, BP, Bull market, CFD, CFDs, crash, Footsie, FTSE, FTSE 100, FTSE 350, FTSE index, FTSE Sectors, Lloyds, Market bottom, market rally, market trend, momentum, Moving Average, rally, RBS, Royal Bank of Scotland, S&P 500, share prices, share tips, sipp, SIPPS, spread betting, stock market, stock market collapse, stock market crash, Stock Market indices, stock market recovery, stock market sectors, stock market trend, stock prices, trading in stocks, UK Banks, Wall Street.

Over recent months the FTSE Forecast has continued to provide accurate information on the direction of the stock markets.

It has, for example, not only warned subscribers of the impending stock market crash many weeks before it occurred but also it gave the warning on the first day of the crash that further were falls due.

We also highlighted the exact level at which the FTSE would stop falling and turn around.

It just doesn’t get better than that!

The FTSE Will Fall Again

Published on August 15, 2011 in Education and Market Reviews. 0 Comments Tags: 6000, bank shares, Banks, Barclays, Bear market, BP, Bull market, CFD, CFDs, crash, Footsie, FTSE, FTSE 250, FTSE 350, FTSE Sectors, FTSE100, Lloyds, Market bottom, market rally, market trend, momentum, Moving Average, rally, RBS, Royal Bank of Scotland, S&P 500, share prices, share tips, sipp, SIPPS, spread betting, stock market, stock market collapse, stock market crash, Stock Market indices, stock market recovery, stock market sectors, stock market trend, stock prices, trading in stocks, UK Banks, Wall Street.

Late last week buyers obviously reckoned that they could see a good buying opportunity as they returned to the market in force. The result was that the FTSE 100 closed at the top of its range for the week.

The low for the week was right on the support level that we had identified for members a week earlier!

The FTSE is now in something of a state of limbo. There is the possibility that it might claw its way back up to the 5670 area and even, possibly, to the 5750 area as it is a fact that there is always a positive period that follows such a steep collapse as the FTSE has suffered over the past two weeks.

This ‘limbo’ period is a dangerous time as a sense of ‘recovery’ can fill the air and buyers begin to lose their caution and start doubling up on their earlier purchases so as not to miss out on the expected recovery (the earlier concerns about the state of the market being explained away as “over reaction”).

But, beware, because it is a fact that, until it changes, the market is still in the early phase of a stage 4 Downtrend which, by its very nature, will follow through with more declines in share values after the bounce. It has happened before -

Click on the cart to enlarge it

It is likely that the FTSE 100 will fall to test the strength of the support at the 4782 level again at some point. If it should close below that level then we can expect more falls and, perhaps, a decline all the way down to the 3475 level again.

So, enjoy and benefit from any sustained bounce that the FTSE may provide over the coming weeks but remember it is in a Downtrend as its dominant trend and that it will, therefore, fall back again.

ShareHunter Subscribers Make Big Profits From the Market Crash

Published on August 10, 2011 in Education and ShareHunter News. 0 Comments Tags: bank shares, Banks, Barclays, Bear market, BP, Bull market, CFD, CFDs, crash, FTSE 250, FTSE 350, FTSE index, FTSE100, going short, Lloyds, market rally, momentum, Moving Average, rally, RBS, Royal Bank of Scotland, S&P 500, share prices, share tips, short, shorting shares, shorting stocks, sipp, SIPPS, spread betting, stock market collapse, stock market crash, stock market recovery, UK Banks, Wall Street.

For months ShareHunter subscribers were kept well aware of the oncoming market express that was going to cause a collapse in share prices. Then they were told on the very day that it started to go short of stocks (and we showed them which stocks to sell). Then, on Sunday 7th August they were shown that the FTSE was likely to bottom out at the 4782 area – on Tuesday 9th August it bottomed out at 4791!!

All subscribers know what is likely to happen next and where the FTSE is heading and when it will collapse again.

So, IF YOU WANT -

1. TO STAY AHEAD OF THE PACK

2. TO KNOW WHEN TO BUY AND WHEN TO GO SHORT

3. TO MAKE SERIOUS PROFITS FROM SHARE TRADING

Then join ShareHunter now and enjoy and profit from the Stock Market’ Ups and Downs

A Bottom on the FTSE Today – temporarily at least

Published on August 9, 2011 in Education, Market Reviews and ShareHunter News. 0 Comments Tags: bank shares, Banks, Barclays, Bear market, BP, CFD, CFDs, crash, FTSE, FTSE 100, FTSE 250, FTSE 350, FTSE index, FTSE Sectors, Lloyds, Market bottom, Market low, market rally, market trend, momentum, Moving Average, rally, RBS, Royal Bank of Scotland, S&P 500, share prices, share tips, sipp, SIPPS, spread betting, stock market crash, stock market recovery, stock market trend, trading in stocks, UK Banks, Wall Street.

In our last ‘FTSE Forecast Report (available on request to admin@sharehunter.com) we showed the likely bottom on the FTSE 100 as at 4782 from which area a bounce back is likely. Here is the long term chart -

The FTSE 100 has made a low today at 4791 – close enough!! A rally should soon commence.

At this stage of the cycle we cannot be sure if 4791 will prove to be the final bottom – but we doubt that it will be. There may be a good pull back to the level of the neckline (the dotted line) before the Downtrend recommences.

In our weekly ‘FTSE Forecast’ reports we have been warning, for weeks now, that this big crash was coming so good profits have been made from shorting stocks during the last week and more profits will be made as the market rallies and then , probably, crashes back again!

The FTSE 100 is Going to Crash…but When ??

Published on July 18, 2011 in Education, Market Reviews and ShareHunter News. 0 Comments Tags: bank shares, Banks, Barclays, Bear market, BP, CFD, CFDs, crash, Footsie, FTSE, FTSE 250, FTSE index, FTSE100, how to tell if the stock market is going to crash, Lloyds, market rally, market trend, Moving Average, RBS, Royal Bank of Scotland, share prices, share tips, sipp, SIPPS, spread betting, stock market, stock market collapse, stock market crash, UK Banks.

The following is an extract from the ShareHunter ‘FTSE Forecast’ report this weekend -

Of the 8 trend indicators that we use to identify current and likely direction there is only 1 showing as positive for the FTSE 100 index, with 3 showing as neutral and 4 showing as negative. This means that the bias is well in favour of a decline to follow.

If this downward bias continues as, frankly, we expect it to, then we need to consider the probable effect on share prices. To do this we need to look back. The chart below shows the full 27 year history of the FTSE 100 index -

FTSE 100 – Monthly price chart:

(Click on the chart to enlarge it)

Two aspects are immediately obvious, firstly how the FTSE vibrates to the “8ths” rhythmic scale and, secondly, how it strives to test previous highs and lows.

So, now we have the question of whether or not the FTSE will finish its 2009 – to date attempt to test the previous highs by adding that extra +25% to the +75% already achieved since March 2009. The answer to that is easy – if the index can close above 6090 for two consecutive weeks then it will almost certainly end up at the 6900 area.

But, that scenario is looking increasingly unlikely. Not only is the FTSE displaying signals of weakness but it has also spent the last 7+ months going sideways. So how will we know if it is going to fall further – indeed, how will we know if it is going to crash?

Again, the answer is relatively easy – two possible events will tell us (and will get us shorting stocks): Firstly, the neckline underneath the lows will be broken to the downside. Note how this has occurred on each of the previous two occasions of a FTSE major collapse -

Secondly, and by way of confirmation that the dominant trend has changed to the Downtrend (so none of us should be buying stocks – just shorting them), there must be a crossover of the 13 and 34 week exponential MAs -

Until these two events occur the FTSE is likely to continue with its sideways movement but as soon as they have occurred we can expect the FTSE to fall, and probably to fall quite heavily. It is likely to crash by 25% or so from the 6090 level and could, as a worst case scenario fall all the way back down to test the lows at the 3475 level again!

When you look back to the FTSE monthly prices chart above you can see that this is a perfectly possible outcome. But when is it likely to happen?…

For a copy of the full report and to receive future weekly reports please go to -

https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=8NCBVH3W6UPCE

The ShareHunter Analysis Saw the Risk of a Big FTSE Fall

Published on July 12, 2011 in Education, Market Reviews and ShareHunter News. 0 Comments Tags: bank shares, Banks, Barclays, Bear market, BP, Bull market, CFD, CFDs, crash, FTSE, FTSE index, FTSE100, Lloyds, Market bottom, market rally, market trend, RBS, Royal Bank of Scotland, S&P 500, share prices, share tips, sipp, SIPPS, spread betting, stock market, stock market collapse, stock market crash, stock market recovery, UK Banks, Wall Street.

The opening two paragraphs of this weekend’s ‘FTSE Forecast’ Report, sent to all ShareHunter subscribers, warned of the danger of a big fall.

The ‘FTSE Forecast’ Report is summarised below – But don’t you think that it would be a good idea to keep yourself properly informed on where the FTSE is heading? You can subscribe for the weekly ‘FTSE Forecast’ and do just that. It is only £12 a month or, of course, you can subscribe for the full ShareHunter Alerts service and get up-to-the-minute top UK and US share tips plus daily stop-loss and profit-protection service. And the ‘FTSE Forecast’ then comes free.

You can join for the full service now by going to our Home page or you can just subscribe for the ‘FTSE Forecast’ by using this link -

https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=8NCBVH3W6UPCE

The ‘ FTSE Forecast’ Report on 10th July 2011 (extracts) -

The strength that the FTSE 100 showed the week before last ebbed away last week and left the FTSE 100 index with a ‘Gravestone Doji’ candlestick. This is normally interpreted as a bearish signal indicating a top reversal and, as the high of the week reached the heavy resistance area at 6055/6090, the creation of a new top has to be considered as a serious possibility.

It could also have serious consequences because, if a top does form, it would be the 4^th top and the resulting fall could, therefore, approach being fast and furious -

FTSE 100 Weekly price chart -

Unfortunately, the FTSE 250 is not in a position to help clarify the situation. As expected, it has risen to test the strength of the resistance created by its May 2007 all-time-high value at 12236. From there last week it fell back to create a ‘shooting star’ candlestick pattern which is also normally interpreted as a bearish signal. But, again, conformation from the following (i.e. next) week is required for accurate interpretation

FTSE 250 weekly price chart -

There is not much help, strength or support coming from Wall Street either. The S&P 500 is finding the grip of the 1334/1350 resistance area too strong to escape from and, last week, it too gave a signal indicating the frustration and indecision existing in the market -

S&P 500 weekly price chart -

And, frankly, it is not really worth looking elsewhere in the World for opportunity just now. Much is written about the potential offered by the likes of Japan and, particularly, the emerging economies of China and India. Well, their major market indices are not looking very bright at all and, currently, do not even offer anything like the same degree of short term growth potential that is/might be available from the FTSE and S&P if those two indices manage an upwards breakout from the overhead resistance areas -………continued

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