The following is an extract from the ShareHunter ‘FTSE Forecast’ report this weekend -

Of the 8 trend indicators that we use to identify current and likely direction there is only 1 showing as positive for the FTSE 100 index, with 3 showing as neutral and 4 showing as negative. This means that the bias is well in favour of a decline to follow.

If this downward bias continues as, frankly, we expect it to, then we need to consider the probable effect on share prices. To do this we need to look back. The chart below shows the full 27 year history of the FTSE 100 index -

FTSE 100 – Monthly price chart:

(Click on the chart to enlarge it)

Two aspects are immediately obvious, firstly how the FTSE vibrates to the “8ths” rhythmic scale and, secondly, how it strives to test previous highs and lows.

So, now we have the question of whether or not the FTSE will finish its 2009 – to date attempt to test the previous highs by adding that extra +25% to the +75% already achieved since March 2009. The answer to that is easy – if the index can close above 6090 for two consecutive weeks then it will almost certainly end up at the 6900 area.

But, that scenario is looking increasingly unlikely. Not only is the FTSE displaying signals of weakness but it has also spent the last 7+ months going sideways. So how will we know if it is going to fall further – indeed, how will we know if it is going to crash?

Again, the answer is relatively easy – two possible events will tell us (and will get us shorting stocks): Firstly, the neckline underneath the lows will be broken to the downside. Note how this has occurred on each of the previous two occasions of a FTSE major collapse -

Secondly, and by way of confirmation that the dominant trend has changed to the Downtrend (so none of us should be buying stocks – just shorting them), there must be a crossover of the 13 and 34 week exponential MAs -

Until these two events occur the FTSE is likely to continue with its sideways movement but as soon as they have occurred we can expect the FTSE to fall, and probably to fall quite heavily. It is likely to crash by 25% or so from the 6090 level and could, as a worst case scenario fall all the way back down to test the lows at the 3475 level again!

When you look back to the FTSE monthly prices chart above you can see that this is a perfectly possible outcome. But when is it likely to happen?…

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