The other 45 stocks are in various stages between support and resistance levels or are so low as to make analysis difficult (RBS for example!). We continue to search and to analyse in depth and will produce alerts as soon as we find suitable candidates for a trade.

The one thing that does very clearly show is the effectiveness of our technical analysis with its combination of the 4-stages and the ‘8ths’ levels of support and resistance making it so superior to other systems .

Here is the chart of the FTSE 100 using weekly prices (which is the only way to properly determine the dominant trend of the market) -

The FTSE 100 is likely to fall back down again to the 4782 level where it will hope to find buyers jumping in so allowing it to rally back up the scale. But, if it fails to find sufficient support and falls, and closes, below 4782 then it will be destined to go quite a lot lower; as we have indicated in previous reports, probably down to the 3475 level area.

Analysis of the wider market doesn’t show any greater degree of support for a meaningful rally. The FTSE 250 looks likely to drift down towards a test for support at the 8850 level area -

It could prove to be a costly mistake to be buying into this market (other than on a very short term basis).  Support from across the Atlantic looks very unlikely and the FTSE is in a Downtrend as its dominant trend and, whilst that remains in force, lower share prices are likely.

It is open to all and I do hope that you will take part. There is no catch and no ulterior motive, just a bit of fun and the more who take part the merrier it should be.

The competition is simple. It is to guess what day will be the third consecutive day that the FTSE 100 index closes above 6100 (we have selected the 3^rd day simply because one or two days might not be enough to confirm the breakout).

The donation is £5 a time (and there is no limit to the number of times you can donate) and all date selections must be ‘in’ by 5pm on Sunday the 19^th June 2011. The winner will receive the total in the kitty (which will be the total of all of the £5 donations less only the Paypal charge of 3.4%); if there is more than one winner then the pot will be shared eaqually. ShareHunter will not make anything from this sweepstake, it is just a bit of fun. You could win a substantial sum or have it donated to a charity of your choice.

So, whether you think that 6100 on the FTSE 100 will be achieved this month, this year or not for a decade(!) do take part and enter your date(s).

Please use this link  to Paypal –

https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=SLVNK2NTACSKU

for each time you want to make a £5 guess. No other advice is necessary as Paypal will provide us with a record of your choice of date(s) and your email address and we will, of course, acknowledge your participation.

Let’s have a bit of light relief and good luck…

The ShareHunter Team

It is taking up an overly large chunk of ‘elasticity’ as it is some 2.5% below the 5770 support level as I write. The brave among you will be viewing this as a buying opportunity (and be hoping that you are not joining the foolish).

I show below the chart of the FTSE so that you may appreciate the comments made in our last FTSE Forecast Report. If the 5770 ‘elastic band’ doesn’t provide the required support and it breaks then there is  a sizeable empty space down to the 5100 level area. There is some minor support that may come in at the 5330 level but, otherwise there is precious little obvious support  to prevent the index falling to the 5100 area. The importance of the 5770 elastic support band is, therefore, vital and this week’s movements of the FTSE 100 index will be critical to where it goes next. At the 5600 the elastic is close to breaking but, if it can hold and bounce back during this week then all will not be lost; Indeed it may well prove to be a profitable time to buy -

click on chart to enlarge.

Our current analysis says Not! Not yet anyway. Our analysis shows this stock as an ‘avoid’ and not as a ‘buy’ in view of its current decline. The risk involved in buying now is too great as there has been no signal yet that its downturn has finished.

The following points are relevant -

1.     The stock’s dominant trend – as shown by the, now falling, 30wk MA on the weekly chart and the negative crossover of the two exponential MAs on the daily chart – is now the Downtrend so, to buy now would run counter to the dominant trend and thereby involve extra risk as the dominant trend may well yet take the price lower.

2.     The price has fallen below the 158p support level of the 25% retracement of the stock’s previous strong Uptrend (from the Oct’08 low at 22p to the Nov’10 high at 203p) and is falling towards the next level of potential support of the 50% retracement level at 112p.

3.     Although the volume/spread analysis suggests that the worst of the selling may be over there is, as yet, no firm indication that buyers are returning to the stock (and without active buying the price is not going to rise to any appreciable extent).

Weekly -

Daily -

(Click on the charts to enlarge them).

Conclusion -

The stock must stay above the 112p level in order to have any possibility of a recovery rally. (To fall below 112p would indicate the potential for a possible decline all the way down to the 67p level).

Even then, should a rally commence from above 112p, we must wait for the dominant trend to change back to an Uptrend ( to be indicated by a positive crossover of the two exponential MAs on the daily chart) as, otherwise, it will likely be just a minor reaction within the main Downtrend – which will quickly reassert itself.

Before the trend changes back to Uptrend the price is likely to pull itself back up towards the 158p level which, then, will be considered as likely to produce resistance to further increase. So, not until the 158p level has been broken to the upside should we consider this the risk element to be sufficiently reduced as to present the stock as worthy of purchase.

160p is then a suitable price to consider Centamin Egypt as a buy – based on the current situation. Much can change between now and then and re-analysis later may create a different conclusion.

A.G.Saunders    Chief Analyst,   ShareHunter.com                                                                                            7^th March 2011

I just wanted to let you know that, sadly, I shall be leaving the Sharehunter service from end Feb.

But I wanted to say that this is absolutely not a reflection on the standard or quality of service I have received from yourself and your team. You offer a brilliant, very professional and competitively priced service and I am sad to leave.

Over only three months my account has grown…..and this in a very uncertain market. At one point my account value even topped 10% growth (11K) which was astounding!

Our thanks go to ‘Mr. A.J.‘ for making us feel good even though we are losing him as a member.

However, we also need to read from the other side of the coin, and that side suggests that there is a danger that the index is growing tired and could, therefore, take a dive back down to the level of its 30 week MA which is currently at the 5770 area -

Click on the chart to enlarge it-

On Wall Street, the continuing nagging worry is that the S&P 500 Index is still not clear of the resistance of the 1334/1350 area that is putting a check on its upward progress and which could cause the index to turn over and fall back. And what the S&P does is likely to be mirrored by the FTSE 100….

….the full ‘FTSE Forecast Report is available, free, on request to admin@sharehunter.com

At first look it appears that last week was just another boring week for the FTSE and one where, yet again and after some nine weeks of trying, it was unable to achieve a breakout above the 6055 top of the resistance area that has been so powerful over the last couple of months.

We are hesitant to suggest that a growth bonanza is imminent is derived from our long, and sometimes painful, experience. The market does have a tendency to suddenly take a sideswipe at you and leave you nursing losses rather than gains and this nearly always happens when the sky is clear blue and when everything looks so rosy and positive.

But, not wishing to rain on the parade – the signals are all looking nicely positive for increasing share prices over the coming few weeks. Added to which there is the surprising, but hidden, occurance last week that could be the catalyst for a jump upwards in share prices.

More detail is in our ‘FTSE Forecast’ report which is available, free, on request to admin@sharehunter.com

Our conclusion was that the markets have potential for another 5% or so increase before the possibility of a major price retracement, possibly to the extent of -20% to – 25%, occurs perhaps in March.

And today, after another week during which the FTSE has again failed to break out above the 5970/6050 resistance area and with the other indices chipping away at that potential 5% increase, we see no reason to change that conclusion.

The FTSE 100 -

Click on the chart to enlarge.

Then, from the high at 390 p in Sept’09 the price started to drift and it has remained in a congestion range (level highs and lows) ever since – although, of late, it has commenced to drift lower. The fact that the price is now underneath the level of its 30wk Moving Average is a sign of weakness and which, in turn, suggests that any price recovery is likely to be modest and short lived.

There is good support for the price at the 255p level where a triple low formation has now formed. This is, though, something of a two-edged sword; whilst the recent 3^rd low should assist towards a reasonable rally a reversal and break below that 3^rd low at 255p could encourage a steeper decline. And, given the stock’s current weakness this has to be a serious possibility.

Should the price fall below 255p then it is likely to move down to the 220p area before finding any real support.

For Buyers – Not a good time to be buying this stock – wait for the price to get back above its 30wk Moving Average as that could signal a potential rally up to the 390p area (but check with us first).

For Those Holding – You are holding more in hope of a good rally than the expectation of one. The share is weak and is, therefore, just as liable to a down move as it is to a rally. And, of course, you suffer a ‘lost opportunity’ cost whilst Barclays continues in its congestion range when other stocks are ramping up!

Alan Saunders

Chief Analyst, ShareHunter.com                     11 Jan 2011.