Archive for the 'Uncategorized' Category

Is the FTSE heading to 6000?

Published on September 6, 2010 in Uncategorized. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , .

The FTSE 100’s 226 point rise last week was a show of strength and we continue to be impressed by the support provided by the 5010-5350 block area which has, over the last year, prevented the index from plummeting.

This area of 5010 to 5350 remains key to the FTSE’s future. If the index can stay, above 5350 then the rally will continue and the trend should change to an uptrend with 6000 then becoming a real possibility.

A large and decisive move is likely to get underweigh this Autumn and, on our current analysis of the technical signals and despite the positive signals of last week’s rise, that move is likely to be down; and sharply down at that. Probably to 4800 and then lower. At best we would put the current ‘odds’ at 60:40 on a down move.

Reasons why and the detailed forecast for the FTSE’s next move are given in our latest ‘FTSE Forecast’ which is available on request to Admin@ShareHunter.com

UK BANKS – Analysis

Published on August 5, 2010 in Uncategorized. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , .

Following on from our analysis of Barclays and RBS we have now completed analysis of LLoyds, HSBC and Standard Chartered Banks. The reports are available on email request to Admin@ShareHunter

UK Banks – Analysis

Published on July 30, 2010 in Uncategorized. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , .

We have just completed a revised analysis of Barclays and RBS.  a copy is available on request

Don’t get suckered in to this market – the FTSE could be about to change direction

Published on July 27, 2010 in Uncategorized. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , .

Let’s begin by admitting that no analytical system of the Stock Market is perfect and always 100% right. But there are some technical signals that do tend to ‘work’ more often than not and it is, therefore, worth taking note of them as and when they occur and adjusting one’s trading accordingly.

One such technical signal is when the index (or stock price) meets the level of its 30 week moving average (‘MA’); when it does the index, or share price, will often change direction at, or near, the meeting point. If the price has fallen to the MA level then, often, it will turn back upwards; if it has risen to the MA level then, often, it will reverse and fall back.

As you can see from this chart over the last few years the FTSE has changed direction each time it has met with or come close to the level of its 30 wk  moving average and it is at that level again now -

So, it would be wise to take notice of this and to hold fire on any new share purchases or long trades of the FTSE until the picture becomes clearer.

Another point to bear in mind (no pun intended) is that the FTSE is currently in a technical downtrend and within any downtrend there will often be ‘bear’ trend rallies that last for between 3 and 5 weeks. This week is the 4th week of the current rally!

FTSE FORECAST

Published on July 19, 2010 in Uncategorized. 2 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , .

The latest forecast of where the FTSE is headed is now available and the future is not looking very bright.

Has The FTSE Bottomed Out?

Published on July 12, 2010 in Uncategorized. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , .

Our latest analysis of the FTSE shows that this rally may continue for a while but that the FTSE has NOT bottomed out. There is a lot of risk buying into this market at the present time. Ask for a copy of the latest analysis of the FTSE’s direction

BP’s Share Price – How far will it fall?

Published on June 22, 2010 in Uncategorized. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , .

In fact it could be on the bottom now (but don’t buy it yet as you could be grabbing a falling knife!). There is an important support level for BP at 330p which it has touched, and bounced from (so far) today.

But, if it should close below 330p for two consecutive days then it is likely to carry on falling to the 270p level where it should find support. Failing that level would be serious and would see the price fall to 220p. Hence our suggestion that it might be best not to try and gusee the bottom but rather to wait until some confidence (and buying) returns to teh share price.

Trying to guess a bottom is always a mugs game and is fraught with danger. Best wait for a new, and higher, low to form so as to gain some confidence that the recovery has started – and it hasn’t yet!

The Stock Market – to Rally or Crash?

Published on May 16, 2010 in Uncategorized. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , .

Every one of the major market indices that we report on every week is currently testing the level of its 30wk moving average (‘MA’). Why is this worthy of comment? It is because it is a common result of a test of the MA that the index (or share price for an individual stock) changes direction.

So for an index that has been falling and is now testing the level of its MA it is quite possible for it to now change direction and to rally. And that is exactly what might now happen for all of the major indices – but with the possible exception of the FTSE 100. We need the price action this week to confirm the direction change but the FTSE 250, the FTSE SmCap, the S&P 500, the Dow Jones Industrials and the Nasdaq 100 are all fallen to, and are now testing, the current level of their MAs and starting to bounce back.

The exception is the FTSE 100 which has already fallen through its MA. It has found temporary support at the important 5108 level and has managed to rally slightly – but only up to the level of its MA. In other words, if the usual result of a test of the MA level – a change in direction – occurs then the FTSE is due to fall again, not rally.

In this regard it is the FTSE that is out step with the rest of the major indices. It was only a couple of weeks ago when the FTSE led the rest of the world by falling sharply when all the other indices were reflecting an upward tendency that we suggested that it was unlikely that the FTSE was leading the way! We will not then make the same claim now as we could be a  wrong again. However, it has to be observed that with 5 other major indices suggesting that a rally may now be due the bias favours a rally for the FTSE 100 up from the 5108 support level.

The alternative scenario is that, if the FTSE is, again, showing the world’s markets the way to go then all are due for some steep falls and the FTSE itself will be due a damaging fall and, perhaps, to move into a longer term ‘bear’ trend. But, for the moment, this is the more distant scenario.

Individual market commentary and illustrative charts are available at http://www.sharehunter.com/news/market-review/

Is the worst over for the stock market? Are shares now safe?

Published on May 12, 2010 in Uncategorized. 0 Comments Tags: , , , .

The answer to our question is…Perhaps, but the stock market is not out of the woods yet.

Over the last few weeks the risks have been much increased so we ceased to call new trade alerts just before the FTSE began to tumble. That does not mean that we are brilliant or clairvoyant but it does mean that our daily analysis of the market trends is accurate and effective.

The current state of play is that the FTSE is still below potential resistance (at the 5400 level) in spite of the big rise earlier this week. This resistance could send the index sharply back down again; otherwise, if 5400 is overcome then share prices should move strongly ahead again and back up to test the 5770 level resistance. All this can be seen from the chart –

Interestingly, and perhaps indicating that there is an underlying and growing strength in the market as a whole, the FTSE 250 index is far more positive than its big sister (the FTSE 100). The FTSE 250 has found and bounced up from support at the 9610 level and is racing back up to test the 10500 level again. This is shown on the chart below –

So, nothing is for definite just yet. Risk remains above the norm although not nearly so high as it has been recently. The answer has to be to invest cautiously (as you know we started again, gently, this morning) and to keep a very close eye on the likely future direction of all share prices.

THE FALLING FTSE

Published on April 28, 2010 in Education, Market Reviews and Uncategorized. 0 Comments Tags: .

We should not have doubted quite as much as we did, the FTSE’s potential to show the lead to the world’s major stock indices. In our Stock Markets review last weekend we were too dismissive of the idea of the FTSE indicating that the way was going to be down. All of the other indices were moving up so we surmised that it was just the FTSE that was out of step.

It wasn’t and we were wrong. Yesterday all the markets moved downwards with the FTSE again leading the way. And there is likely to be more downside to come. At the moment the FTSE has the potential to fall to the 5400 area.