Archive for the 'ShareHunter News' Category

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The ShareHunter Trading Stratagies

Published on November 5, 2010 in Education and ShareHunter News. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , .

Whilst there are always different methods and approaches that can be followed (in fact there is a myriad of them ‘out there’), our Money-Management and Stop-loss ‘rules’, as contained within the overall ShareHunter ‘Trader’ Strategy, are based on decades of experience and are known to work well over any reasonable period of time.

We have made some additions to our trading ‘rules’ of late (mainly as a result of members’ questions) and an up to date copy is now available for every member.

Successful trading is as much about Art as it is about Science. Both are required. Bothe are available from the ShareHunter Strategies.

Where is the FTSE Heading – Up or Down?

Published on October 27, 2010 in Market Reviews and ShareHunter News. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , .

The current rally has taken the index up to another test of the 5770 level. The 5770 level is again producing resistance and, if this is maintained, it could have a detrimental impact on the current (short-term) Uptrend and could, at worst, push the index back down towards another test for support at the 5010/5190 area.

However, the strength inherent in the current rally is such as to suggest that there might only be a short retracement before the index resumes its upwards path and moves up towards a test of the 6060 resistance level area.

IF the FTSE can get, and stay, above the 5770 level it will have moved back into a ‘Stage 2′ Uptrend with the implication then being that a continuing move up the scale could take the index well beyond the 6000 level.

However, it may not happen. There is one niggling worry that we can see and that is a possible negative interpretation of our Momentum Indicator (‘MI’):

Our ‘MI’ is useful for indicating potential highs on the market (it’s not so good at the lows) and that is what it is currently hinting at – that the 5770 level may, once again, become a top of the market for a while. Note how the FTSE has been running up the scale over the past few months whilst the ‘MI’  has moved sideways with only a very jaundiced attempt at rising in similar proportion to the index.

Now, this is not an infallible indicator and can mislead at times but its lack of increase over the last few months does, at least, sound a warning bell for us to be careful and not to go overboard long of the market.

For the FTSE 100 – 5770 continues as the  key level for now; it may hold the index back for a while – it may push it down in a hard, costly, move back to the 5100 area – or it may be a nothing level and allow the index to jump through and on up quickly to the 6060 area.

The FTSE FORECAST – at 17th Oct 2010

Published on October 18, 2010 in Education, Market Reviews and ShareHunter News. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , .

Our up to date analysis of where the FTSE 100 is headed is available on request. A brief extract is ….

The current rally has taken the index up to a test of the 5770 level. The 5770 level is producing resistance and, if this is maintained, it could have a detrimental impact on the current (short-term) Uptrend and could, at worst, push the index back down towards another test for support at the 5010/5190 area.

However the strength inherent in the current rally is such as to suggest that there will only be a short retracement before the index resumes its upwards path and moves up towards a test of the 6000 level area.

Positive Signals Suggest a Rising FTSE

Published on September 28, 2010 in Education, Market Reviews and ShareHunter News. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , .

Not for a long time have we seen so many positive signals on all of the major markets.

Now, that must not be taken as a definitive ‘fill your boots with stocks’ comment as these markets still hold the propensity to shock and to cause mayhem but it is a fact that many of the ‘neutral’ trend signals of late have now turned positive. This gives a clear majority in favour of a developing uptrend and the potential for higher share prices.

Having said that, for the FTSE the immediate scope is limited to a rise and test of the April’10 high at 5790. This level’s resistance could send the index back down the scale.

However, if the FTSE can break clear of 5790 then…. more from ‘The FTSE Forecast’ report that is available on request to admin@sharehunter.com

Traders & Investors – and Gamblers

Published on September 24, 2010 in Education and ShareHunter News. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , .

We were reminded again this week of just how many people end up losing money on the stock market. We have always been aware that the figure was about 80% of investors but we heard quoted the astounding figure of 96%. Can it be true that only 4 people in every 100 who buy and sell shares actually lose all of their trading capital?

Well, from the replies we get from a number of subscribers who have not bothered to follow our suggested and recommended methods of risk control, it is quite possible.

We hate the idea of people losing money on the stock market, particularly when they don’t have to! Ours has been a long and expensive learning curve and we provide all of that experience to our subscribers in order to help them make money from trading stocks and, importantly, to keep it!

But it seems to be a human characteristic that some people can’t, or won’t, take advice or help and insist on doing it ‘their way’ – even though we have been down that route and found that it just doesn’t work.

Spread Betting is a relatively new and exciting tool and is used by many but it can be a very dangerous tool for those who look upon trading shares as a quick and easy way to make money. It can be quick and easy but only when full recognition is taken of the risks and dangers and that is where we at ShareHunter are able to help.

One of the ‘facts’ that we heard about this week was that one Spread Betting company had said that, on average it took their account holders just 7 months to lose all of their trading capital!

That is a frightening statistic if true but then most newcomers to Spread Betting are not ‘trading’ in the true sense of the word, they really are just gambling; enjoying the adrenalin rush rather than the thrill of accumulating wealth – and contributing to the above statistics in the process.

….here endeth the lesson!

The Hindenburg Omen – What is it, What does it mean?

Published on August 15, 2010 in Education, Market Reviews and ShareHunter News. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , .

In a nutshell The Hindenburg Omen is a piece of technical analysis that is said to predict a forthcoming stock market crash.

Last week we were advised that The Hindenburg Omen had appeared on the NYSE so it is now, as we have been saying for some weeks now, a case of buyers (of shares) beware, there is a hidden reef ahead which could cause your ship to sink.

The Hindenburg Omen is a combination of technical signals appearing on the NYSE. The signals include a trigger which is the proportion of stocks reaching new one-year highs and lows both exceed 2.2% of the NYSE listed stocks. Further the number of rising stocks must not be more than twice the number making new lows and the Omen must be repeated within 36 days.

The main point being that there is considerable historical validity to the occurrence of the Omen so it is well worth paying attention to it when it appears.

In fact the Omen is not much different from our own ‘Momentum Indicator’ (although it does not have such a headline catching title). Our Momentum Indicator (‘MI’) is also based on NYSE stock data and charts the differences between the numbers of advancing and declining stocks.

It is our MI that has been one of the indicators that has been at the basis of our assertion that if the stock market trends do not change soon they are due for a significant correction (crash) in September or October. And we now have the Hindenburg Omen that has come in to support that analysis.

As you can see from our chart of the FTSE there is no sign of any significant rise in the MI that might support a new stock market rally.

Nothing is written in stone so a crash may not happen but when there are several, historically valid, signals that suggest that a crash may be on its way, it is best to pay attention and be prepared.

Alan Saunders

Chief Technical Analyst

The FTSE to reach 6000!??

Published on August 12, 2010 in Education, Market Reviews and ShareHunter News. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , .

So, the CEO of Standard Life Investments announces that he thinks the FTSE is going to hit 6000 before the end of the year! He may be right – but he could be very wrong. He is obviously guessing as he cites no technical reasons why it should.

It couldn’t be that he has an ulteria motive could it? It couldn’t be that he wants to encourage as many people as possible to invest into equity based funds (with the Standard Life of course) could it?

We will keep a note of Mr.Skeoch’s claim and will congratulate him on Dec 31st if, indeed, the FTSE has hit the 6000 level again or, if it has failed so to do, we will ask him for an explanation of how he and his investment managers base their wild claims. And we will keep you informed.

At the moment we could not make any such claim ourselves. Our detailed technical analysis still shows the FTSE as struggling to gain enough support to get above the resistance of the 5400 level area; should it eventually succeed in doing so the 6000 does become a possibilty but, at this stage, it is only proper to advise caution as the FTSE could so easily confirm its current effort at downtrending and could, soon, quickly fall to the 4500 level and perhaps a lot lower!

So, Mr. Skeoch we think it would be a lot fairer of you to have given equal prominance to the possibilty of a FTSE collapse or a continuing sideways move – but, the, of course, that wouldn’t attract many new investors into Standard Life’s equity funds, would it!!

The FTSE 250 – Going Up or Down?

Published on August 4, 2010 in Education, Market Reviews and ShareHunter News. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , .

A Technical Analysis of the FTSE 250 – as at 4th August 2010

The FTSE 250 is in a consolidation mode. This could result in one of two ways. If accumulation (of stock holdings) is taking place then the index is likely to start to quicken the pace of the recent rally and so move quickly up to a test of the 10500 level and then, probably, on up to 11000.

Or, if distribution (reduction of stock holdings) is taking place (advantage of the recent rally being taken by the professional ‘in-the-know’ money) then the index is due to relapse and to fall back to the 9610 support level and then, probably, on down to the important 8888 level before support may reappear.

Of these two scenarios, the first is the more likely outcome on present signals -

(Click on the chart to enlarge).

The reasons being that the index’s 30wk MA is still slanting upwards and the index value is maintaining its position above it. Also the 13 and 34 wk exponential MAs (not shown on the chart) are still confirming the continuance of the Uptrend. Volumes are average or relatively low which indicates that not a lot of supply (selling) is coming onto the market which is a positive sign.

Conclusion: the bias is to the upside but caution is required as 10500 resistance is overhead which could send the index back down

Double Dip Recession

Published on June 30, 2010 in Education, Market Reviews and ShareHunter News. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , , , .

According to press comments over the last two days there is now a 60% to 80% chance of a double dip recession occuring. That means that it is likely that all that has been suffered by individuals, businesses and the economy as a whole over the last two years is going to be suffered all over again (for another two years??).

The Stock Market took a hammering in 2007 and 2008 so does this mean that it is going to take another hammerin in 2010 and 2011? The picture painted by our analysis suggests that it will. Over the past weeks and months we have been drawing attention to the increasing probability of an eventual break of the FTSE 100 index below the 5000-5100 area of support and to the likely result of that break being an eventual collapse down to the 3500 area.

Yesterday’s fall to the close at 4914 suggests that the collapse has, indeed, started. However, there are trwo important points to consider: Firstly, thsi may be nothing more than an isolated scare and the FTSE may bounce back and leave many ‘bears’ with red faces and nursing some trading losses. In other words, just as one swallow doesn’t make it summer so one day’s nasty move doesn’t make for a general collapse. But secondly, and more likely, if the FTSE closes below 5000 at the end of the week, on Friday, then this is a strong signal of worse to come – but it may not happen quickly and it may be early autumn before the more general and steep collapse occurs.

The dotted red arrows show the potential collapse -

A subscription oue weekly  ‘The FTSE FORECAST’ report will keep you abreast of all the changes and likely future direction of the FTSE and other World Stock Markets.  For details Copy this address and post it into your browser – https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=8NCBVH3W6UPCE

BP – A speculative ‘Buy’

Published on June 11, 2010 in Market Reviews and ShareHunter News. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , .

Two days ago (on 9th June) we said that BP shares were likely to hit 360p and then bounce. The share price hit 360p on the 10th and today is at 400p!!

If you bought at 360p you could now put in your Stop at the entry price and be sitting pretty – assuming of course that you haven’t already taken and banked your (quite handsome) profits.