Archive for the 'ShareHunter News' Category

The Hindenburg Omen – What is it, What does it mean?

Published on August 15, 2010 in Education, Market Reviews and ShareHunter News. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , .

In a nutshell The Hindenburg Omen is a piece of technical analysis that is said to predict a forthcoming stock market crash.

Last week we were advised that The Hindenburg Omen had appeared on the NYSE so it is now, as we have been saying for some weeks now, a case of buyers (of shares) beware, there is a hidden reef ahead which could cause your ship to sink.

The Hindenburg Omen is a combination of technical signals appearing on the NYSE. The signals include a trigger which is the proportion of stocks reaching new one-year highs and lows both exceed 2.2% of the NYSE listed stocks. Further the number of rising stocks must not be more than twice the number making new lows and the Omen must be repeated within 36 days.

The main point being that there is considerable historical validity to the occurrence of the Omen so it is well worth paying attention to it when it appears.

In fact the Omen is not much different from our own ‘Momentum Indicator’ (although it does not have such a headline catching title). Our Momentum Indicator (‘MI’) is also based on NYSE stock data and charts the differences between the numbers of advancing and declining stocks.

It is our MI that has been one of the indicators that has been at the basis of our assertion that if the stock market trends do not change soon they are due for a significant correction (crash) in September or October. And we now have the Hindenburg Omen that has come in to support that analysis.

As you can see from our chart of the FTSE there is no sign of any significant rise in the MI that might support a new stock market rally.

Nothing is written in stone so a crash may not happen but when there are several, historically valid, signals that suggest that a crash may be on its way, it is best to pay attention and be prepared.

Alan Saunders

Chief Technical Analyst

The FTSE to reach 6000!??

Published on August 12, 2010 in Education, Market Reviews and ShareHunter News. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , .

So, the CEO of Standard Life Investments announces that he thinks the FTSE is going to hit 6000 before the end of the year! He may be right – but he could be very wrong. He is obviously guessing as he cites no technical reasons why it should.

It couldn’t be that he has an ulteria motive could it? It couldn’t be that he wants to encourage as many people as possible to invest into equity based funds (with the Standard Life of course) could it?

We will keep a note of Mr.Skeoch’s claim and will congratulate him on Dec 31st if, indeed, the FTSE has hit the 6000 level again or, if it has failed so to do, we will ask him for an explanation of how he and his investment managers base their wild claims. And we will keep you informed.

At the moment we could not make any such claim ourselves. Our detailed technical analysis still shows the FTSE as struggling to gain enough support to get above the resistance of the 5400 level area; should it eventually succeed in doing so the 6000 does become a possibilty but, at this stage, it is only proper to advise caution as the FTSE could so easily confirm its current effort at downtrending and could, soon, quickly fall to the 4500 level and perhaps a lot lower!

So, Mr. Skeoch we think it would be a lot fairer of you to have given equal prominance to the possibilty of a FTSE collapse or a continuing sideways move – but, the, of course, that wouldn’t attract many new investors into Standard Life’s equity funds, would it!!

The FTSE 250 – Going Up or Down?

Published on August 4, 2010 in Education, Market Reviews and ShareHunter News. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , .

A Technical Analysis of the FTSE 250 – as at 4th August 2010

The FTSE 250 is in a consolidation mode. This could result in one of two ways. If accumulation (of stock holdings) is taking place then the index is likely to start to quicken the pace of the recent rally and so move quickly up to a test of the 10500 level and then, probably, on up to 11000.

Or, if distribution (reduction of stock holdings) is taking place (advantage of the recent rally being taken by the professional ‘in-the-know’ money) then the index is due to relapse and to fall back to the 9610 support level and then, probably, on down to the important 8888 level before support may reappear.

Of these two scenarios, the first is the more likely outcome on present signals -

(Click on the chart to enlarge).

The reasons being that the index’s 30wk MA is still slanting upwards and the index value is maintaining its position above it. Also the 13 and 34 wk exponential MAs (not shown on the chart) are still confirming the continuance of the Uptrend. Volumes are average or relatively low which indicates that not a lot of supply (selling) is coming onto the market which is a positive sign.

Conclusion: the bias is to the upside but caution is required as 10500 resistance is overhead which could send the index back down

Double Dip Recession

Published on June 30, 2010 in Education, Market Reviews and ShareHunter News. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , , , .

According to press comments over the last two days there is now a 60% to 80% chance of a double dip recession occuring. That means that it is likely that all that has been suffered by individuals, businesses and the economy as a whole over the last two years is going to be suffered all over again (for another two years??).

The Stock Market took a hammering in 2007 and 2008 so does this mean that it is going to take another hammerin in 2010 and 2011? The picture painted by our analysis suggests that it will. Over the past weeks and months we have been drawing attention to the increasing probability of an eventual break of the FTSE 100 index below the 5000-5100 area of support and to the likely result of that break being an eventual collapse down to the 3500 area.

Yesterday’s fall to the close at 4914 suggests that the collapse has, indeed, started. However, there are trwo important points to consider: Firstly, thsi may be nothing more than an isolated scare and the FTSE may bounce back and leave many ‘bears’ with red faces and nursing some trading losses. In other words, just as one swallow doesn’t make it summer so one day’s nasty move doesn’t make for a general collapse. But secondly, and more likely, if the FTSE closes below 5000 at the end of the week, on Friday, then this is a strong signal of worse to come – but it may not happen quickly and it may be early autumn before the more general and steep collapse occurs.

The dotted red arrows show the potential collapse -

A subscription oue weekly  ‘The FTSE FORECAST’ report will keep you abreast of all the changes and likely future direction of the FTSE and other World Stock Markets.  For details Copy this address and post it into your browser – https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=8NCBVH3W6UPCE

BP – A speculative ‘Buy’

Published on June 11, 2010 in Market Reviews and ShareHunter News. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , .

Two days ago (on 9th June) we said that BP shares were likely to hit 360p and then bounce. The share price hit 360p on the 10th and today is at 400p!!

If you bought at 360p you could now put in your Stop at the entry price and be sitting pretty – assuming of course that you haven’t already taken and banked your (quite handsome) profits.

The FTSE – Where Next?

Published on June 1, 2010 in Market Reviews and ShareHunter News. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , , , .

This no-nonsense weekly guide based on experienced and well researched technical analysis  will give you the extra confidence of knowing what is happening to the FTSE and why.

Are share prices likely to continue to increase? How far is the FTSE likely to rise? Is the stock market really about to crash? When will it be a good time to buy or to sell-short? Might it be sensible to cash some of your funds or shares now?

These, and many other questions can be answered by – ‘The FTSE-Where Next?’

It will give you an insight into what is happening now on the Stock Market and what is likely to happen next.

With ‘The FTSE – Where Next?’ you will be able to make better investment decisions as well as developing a confidence and certainty from knowing what’s going on and what is about to happen.

The Biggest Buy Signal You Have Ever Seen???

Published on May 28, 2010 in Education, Market Reviews and ShareHunter News. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , .

We have just read an article with this heading. OK the article does include a number of “maybe’s” so it is perhaps written with a tongue in cheek but we feel that it is a dangerous claim to make so publicly as many people will not read the full article and will be thinking that some expert is calling this stage of the FTSE as a huge buying opportunity.

It IS NOT. This week’s rises on the FTSE have been marginal and far from decisive. Indeed, this week could be the very week that shapes the start of an almighty crash in share values. Please do not get carried away and think and act as if the market is going to burst up towards 6000 (as that careless article claims). It might but the risk is that it might not and the FTSE might instead tank down to 5000 and then on down to 4750.

The ShareHunter  Review of  ‘The FTSE- Where Next?’ will  explain and illustrate why and will be available over this weekend. Just ask us for a copy.

The FTSE – Up or Down? Is it going to Crash?

Published on May 24, 2010 in Market Reviews and ShareHunter News. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , .

Despite the doom and gloom in the press and all of the dire warnings of Armageddon to come (although there is no denying that is a possibility) all that has happened to the FTSE so far is that it has retraced back to its important support area of 5100/5000. Nothing new in that as it has been there 3 times in the last 3 months and, on each of those occasions, it has found support and rallied.

But this time it could be different, for the following (technical) reasons:

1. This time the FTSE has fallen below the level of its 30wk. moving average – a negative signal indicating a lack of support and

2. This is the 4th occasion that is has sought support at the 5100/5000 area – and historical records show that the 4th occasion at the same level usually results in a break of that level; (not only that but, after a 4th occasion, the following action can be fast and steep).

So, there is the possibility that the FTSE is going to plummet down to the 4747 level and, possibly, then a lot further (down to 3500) but, for the moment, we must wait to see if support is forthcoming because if it is – on this 4th occasion – then the FTSE could rally back up to the 5400 area.This scenario does not make for easy trading; ‘shorts’ look to be the order of the day but would be stopped out if a rally does ensue. ‘Longs’ are perhaps even more dangerous just now as a price rally may be very short lived as there is a real danger of a price collapse.

Of the other markets, the S&P 500 has tumbled back down to its important support level at 1100 and it is displaying signals of weakness so the danger is that it could, soon, take a nose dive down to the 940 level area if support is not forthcoming this week. Much the same dismal picture applies to the DJIA where increasing weakness is suggesting the index might collapse by over 1000 points, down to mthe 8860 area. The Nasdaq 100 is currently resting and testing for support at the level of its 30wk. moving average. If it breaks below this it is likely to slip all the way down to the 1629 level area.

Individual market commentary and illustrative charts are available at http://www.sharehunter.com/news/market-review/

The FTSE 100 – Where Next?

Published on April 25, 2010 in Education, Market Reviews and ShareHunter News. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , .

The FTSE 100 is continuing to find it difficult to break above the resistance created for it at the 5770 level area. Despite a good performance on Friday it is still stuck in the doldrums underneath the 5770 level. For six consecutive weeks now this resistance has prevented the FTSE from moving further upwards.

In turn this can create a situation where the index can become exhausted by the effort involved in the many weeks of trying to breakout above the resistance and this can be the cause for it to give up and to fall quickly backwards instead. We have seen this sort of situation before where the expenditure of energy required in continually hitting its head on the resistance is such that the resulting exhaustion kills off any remaining buyer support and causes the index to fall away quickly.

However, there is one important factor present in the current situation which should not only prevent this happening but which should also provide the impetus for a coming breakout. And that is that all of the other major indices either have already broken out above their resistance levels or, as is the case with the FTSE 250 and Smallcap indices, are in process of successful breakouts. The important S&P 500, as well as the DJIA and the Nasdaq 100 have all moved impressively above their recent resistance levels.

So, whilst it is possible that the FTSE 100 is going to show the World markets the way for them to follow (downwards) it is highly improbable and it is much more likely that the FTSE 100 will, this week or next, be pulled up by dint of arbitrage and be able to put the 5770 level behind it and to commence its move up towards the next level at 6160.

Individual market commentary and illustrative charts are available at http://www.sharehunter.com/news/market-review/

The FTSE 100 Index

Published on April 8, 2010 in Education, Market Reviews and ShareHunter News. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , .

As we suggested some weeks ago the 5770 level for the FTSE 100 is acting as a level of resistance. The index has spent all of this week testing this level and trying to get above it but is has failed. And today the stock market has seen a substantial retracement.

WE doubt that this will be the start of a longer and stepper decline – not yet anyway. It is likely that the index will recover over the next few days and have another bash at getting above 5770 but the amount of resistance being met does increase the risk of a steeper decline so it will be best not to overcommit to this market at least until 5770 is left behind!