Archive for the 'Education' Category

The Hidden Dangers of Unitised Funds

When you look at the chart of the FTSE 100 index you have to question the wisdom of the ‘Buy and Hold’ philosophy espoused by the banks and insurance companies.

There really is no advantage to having bought shares or invested into insurance company equity funds or unit trusts and watch their value go up and down like the big dipper only to end up, when you need the money, at the same or lower value than when you went in.

Oh yes, we know all about the supposed virtues of pound cost averaging and of dividend income but they tend to be put about by those organisations which stand to benefit from you being persuaded to keep your money invested in their funds.

In our view – and in our experience – there is NO alternative to active management. Identifying the dominant trend in the stock market and of an individual share and buying or selling in sympathy with it is a far superior way to accumulate wealth than simply paying an insurance or unit trust company to hold your money for you.

And, using the ShareHunter Alerts service, to build increasing wealth only requires 15 to 20 minutes a day (and, even then, not even every day) and, importantly, it puts you in full control of your own money.

Listed below are three common practices that, in our view, are specifically loaded in favour of the supplier and against the best interests of you, the investor. They are best avoided -

1 – ASSET ALLOCATION - This is practised by virtually the whole of the investment community. In reality it is poor advice because, when severe bear markets are experienced, virtually all areas collapse. There are very few exceptions to this so simply spreading risk across different sectors is a futile exercise. A decision to exit from a severe bear stock market is vital in order to protect capital. So why do so many investment managements and advisors recommend asset allocation claiming that it reduces risk? The fact is they have little or no choice as the size of their funds excludes the ditching of assets to any significant degree so it doesn’t work.

2 – LARGE PENSION, INSURANCE and UNIT TRUST FUNDS – As soon as an investor arranges to put money into one of these funds it is, to all intents and purposes, ensnared and trapped in whatever investment cycle then follows. It therefore falls to the investor to personally extract himself from such holdings if he can. Most investors need assistance to make such difficult decisions. This will not be available from the investment managers themselves whose aim is to grow the funds under their management and not to give advice which would prejudice their lucrative management fees.

3 – MORATORIUMS - It is far from unusual for fund managers to hold back funds for fairly lengthy periods when there is a run, or even just a danger of a run, on their fund. This is always at the time when it is best to exit that particular market. By the time the moratorium expires the damage to the value of the holding will have been done. And, of course, the investor has been refused his request for the return of his money

As evidence increases of a growing weakness materializing in the stock market the best action has always been to withdraw from funds being managed by institutions (banks, insurance companies, unit trusts etc) in large funds. With the current growing evidence of a stock markets’ crash in the offing the likelihood of an extreme reaction grows bigger with every day as does the danger of moratoriums being placed on withdrawal of one’s money.

Investment Risk and the Stock Market

One of our members has, very sensibly, enquired as to the ’safety’ of our ‘Stop-Loss’ protection system.  Our answer includes the following comments:

One of the reasons why we restrict ourselves to the FTSE 350 stocks and currently, in this volatile market period, eschew Small Cap and AIM stocks is that it is very rare for any such large and liquid shares to suffer the sort of calamitous collapse of up to 50% overnight. That, of course, doesn’t mean that it is impossible but it is very unlikely.

It is possible for a gapped open to exceed our stop-loss price and it happens perhaps 1% to 2% of the time. As we use, and recommend, the tight money management rule of 1.5% of capital the resulting loss of, say, 2% or even 3% is far from calamitous and is recoverable.

Having said that, one should bear in mind that investing/trading on the stock market is a ‘risk’ business. The unforeseen, the exceptional, the ‘one off’ event is an ever present, if relatively low, risk. If one is not prepared to accept that risk then one should not be investing into shares of any nature or size.

Some of us suffered badly in the 1987 stock market crash when share prices tumbled by some 25% over two days (and the stock brokers took their phones off the hook so none of us could trade!!) but it is a different world now but I, for one, would not say that it could never happen again!

Controlling the risk, watching and managing each holding and minimising losses is the secret to making money on the stock market.

Is the FTSE 100 Going Up or Down?

With the establishment of the Downtrend (which is now ‘in play’ for this index) there will always be occasional rallies but these are likely to be only temporary (generally 3 to 5 weeks); the index is currently suggesting that it is likely to return to the 4800 level area (the level of the July low) and then go lower to the 4630 level and, possibly, to 3500 before any serious support might be forthcoming.

There is now a 60% chance of the index falling to the 4630 area against a 40% chance of a rally to the 6000 area.

For more detail request a copy of ShareHunter’s latest  ‘FTSE Forecast’ report.

The Hindenburg Omen – What is it, What does it mean?

In a nutshell The Hindenburg Omen is a piece of technical analysis that is said to predict a forthcoming stock market crash.

Last week we were advised that The Hindenburg Omen had appeared on the NYSE so it is now, as we have been saying for some weeks now, a case of buyers (of shares) beware, there is a hidden reef ahead which could cause your ship to sink.

The Hindenburg Omen is a combination of technical signals appearing on the NYSE. The signals include a trigger which is the proportion of stocks reaching new one-year highs and lows both exceed 2.2% of the NYSE listed stocks. Further the number of rising stocks must not be more than twice the number making new lows and the Omen must be repeated within 36 days.

The main point being that there is considerable historical validity to the occurrence of the Omen so it is well worth paying attention to it when it appears.

In fact the Omen is not much different from our own ‘Momentum Indicator’ (although it does not have such a headline catching title). Our Momentum Indicator (‘MI’) is also based on NYSE stock data and charts the differences between the numbers of advancing and declining stocks.

It is our MI that has been one of the indicators that has been at the basis of our assertion that if the stock market trends do not change soon they are due for a significant correction (crash) in September or October. And we now have the Hindenburg Omen that has come in to support that analysis.

As you can see from our chart of the FTSE there is no sign of any significant rise in the MI that might support a new stock market rally.

Nothing is written in stone so a crash may not happen but when there are several, historically valid, signals that suggest that a crash may be on its way, it is best to pay attention and be prepared.

Alan Saunders

Chief Technical Analyst

The FTSE to reach 6000!??

So, the CEO of Standard Life Investments announces that he thinks the FTSE is going to hit 6000 before the end of the year! He may be right – but he could be very wrong. He is obviously guessing as he cites no technical reasons why it should.

It couldn’t be that he has an ulteria motive could it? It couldn’t be that he wants to encourage as many people as possible to invest into equity based funds (with the Standard Life of course) could it?

We will keep a note of Mr.Skeoch’s claim and will congratulate him on Dec 31st if, indeed, the FTSE has hit the 6000 level again or, if it has failed so to do, we will ask him for an explanation of how he and his investment managers base their wild claims. And we will keep you informed.

At the moment we could not make any such claim ourselves. Our detailed technical analysis still shows the FTSE as struggling to gain enough support to get above the resistance of the 5400 level area; should it eventually succeed in doing so the 6000 does become a possibilty but, at this stage, it is only proper to advise caution as the FTSE could so easily confirm its current effort at downtrending and could, soon, quickly fall to the 4500 level and perhaps a lot lower!

So, Mr. Skeoch we think it would be a lot fairer of you to have given equal prominance to the possibilty of a FTSE collapse or a continuing sideways move – but, the, of course, that wouldn’t attract many new investors into Standard Life’s equity funds, would it!!

BP Share Price

BP’s Share Price – Where Next?

As you can see from the long term (6 year) chart history BP’s share price was not exactly covering itself in glory before the disatrous event in the Gulf of Mexico as it drfited down and sideways following the April 2006 high at 722p.

BP – Weekly price history (6 years). Click on chart to enlarge:

Then came the 45% collapse from the 658p April 2010 high which has caused so much dismay and grief for so many investors. The huge volumes traded coincident with the June 2010 low (at 295p) suggest that that low is to be the final low for the foreseeable future; which may be os some relief to many. The fact that the price broke above the resistance level at 386p and then fell back to it for support, making a new, higher low is a bullish signal even though the price has meandered sideways since. These features can be seen on the short term daily price chart:

BP – Daily price history (1 year). Click on chart to enlarge:

Technically speaking the stock is still in a downtrend despite the encouraging rally since June and, as such, it will be susceptible to sudden price reversals. However, the current rally looks as though it has more to go.

Having broken above the 386p support/resistance level the price should continue its upward progress and attempt a test of the next level of potential resistance which is at the 476p level. This would also achieve another technical feature which will be the closing of the price gap that occurred on the way down in May (marked on the chart above).

In summary; BP is in short term uptrend wihin a main dominant downtrend; as such the rally will be prone to sudden, sharp, price reversals but the rally is expected to continue up towards the 476p level before any serious resistance is experienced.

Alan Saunders

Chief Technical Analyst.

ShareHunter.com

The FTSE 250 – Going Up or Down?

A Technical Analysis of the FTSE 250 – as at 4th August 2010

The FTSE 250 is in a consolidation mode. This could result in one of two ways. If accumulation (of stock holdings) is taking place then the index is likely to start to quicken the pace of the recent rally and so move quickly up to a test of the 10500 level and then, probably, on up to 11000.

Or, if distribution (reduction of stock holdings) is taking place (advantage of the recent rally being taken by the professional ‘in-the-know’ money) then the index is due to relapse and to fall back to the 9610 support level and then, probably, on down to the important 8888 level before support may reappear.

Of these two scenarios, the first is the more likely outcome on present signals -

(Click on the chart to enlarge).

The reasons being that the index’s 30wk MA is still slanting upwards and the index value is maintaining its position above it. Also the 13 and 34 wk exponential MAs (not shown on the chart) are still confirming the continuance of the Uptrend. Volumes are average or relatively low which indicates that not a lot of supply (selling) is coming onto the market which is a positive sign.

Conclusion: the bias is to the upside but caution is required as 10500 resistance is overhead which could send the index back down

Double Dip Recession

According to press comments over the last two days there is now a 60% to 80% chance of a double dip recession occuring. That means that it is likely that all that has been suffered by individuals, businesses and the economy as a whole over the last two years is going to be suffered all over again (for another two years??).

The Stock Market took a hammering in 2007 and 2008 so does this mean that it is going to take another hammerin in 2010 and 2011? The picture painted by our analysis suggests that it will. Over the past weeks and months we have been drawing attention to the increasing probability of an eventual break of the FTSE 100 index below the 5000-5100 area of support and to the likely result of that break being an eventual collapse down to the 3500 area.

Yesterday’s fall to the close at 4914 suggests that the collapse has, indeed, started. However, there are trwo important points to consider: Firstly, thsi may be nothing more than an isolated scare and the FTSE may bounce back and leave many ‘bears’ with red faces and nursing some trading losses. In other words, just as one swallow doesn’t make it summer so one day’s nasty move doesn’t make for a general collapse. But secondly, and more likely, if the FTSE closes below 5000 at the end of the week, on Friday, then this is a strong signal of worse to come – but it may not happen quickly and it may be early autumn before the more general and steep collapse occurs.

The dotted red arrows show the potential collapse -

A subscription oue weekly  ‘The FTSE FORECAST’ report will keep you abreast of all the changes and likely future direction of the FTSE and other World Stock Markets.  For details Copy this address and post it into your browser – https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=8NCBVH3W6UPCE

THE STOCK MARKET TO FOLLOW ENGLAND?

Last week the FTSE wiped off the previous two week’s gains. In so doing it fell back, yet again, to the important 5000-5100 level area to seek support. If support (in the form of active buyers) does not materialise then the FTSE is destined to follow England’s World Cup performance and to ‘bomb out’.

Our latest ‘FTSE FORECAST’ is available and explains in detail where the FTSE may now be heading.

BP’s share price

BP’s share price is likely to continue to fall but it should find support at the 360p level. From there it may rally.  So a speculative buy is best left until this level is touched and the price has given a signal that a rally is about to start.