Monthly Archive for September, 2010

Positive Signals Suggest a Rising FTSE

Published on September 28, 2010 in Education, Market Reviews and ShareHunter News. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , .

Not for a long time have we seen so many positive signals on all of the major markets.

Now, that must not be taken as a definitive ‘fill your boots with stocks’ comment as these markets still hold the propensity to shock and to cause mayhem but it is a fact that many of the ‘neutral’ trend signals of late have now turned positive. This gives a clear majority in favour of a developing uptrend and the potential for higher share prices.

Having said that, for the FTSE the immediate scope is limited to a rise and test of the April’10 high at 5790. This level’s resistance could send the index back down the scale.

However, if the FTSE can break clear of 5790 then…. more from ‘The FTSE Forecast’ report that is available on request to admin@sharehunter.com

Traders & Investors – and Gamblers

Published on September 24, 2010 in Education and ShareHunter News. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , .

We were reminded again this week of just how many people end up losing money on the stock market. We have always been aware that the figure was about 80% of investors but we heard quoted the astounding figure of 96%. Can it be true that only 4 people in every 100 who buy and sell shares actually lose all of their trading capital?

Well, from the replies we get from a number of subscribers who have not bothered to follow our suggested and recommended methods of risk control, it is quite possible.

We hate the idea of people losing money on the stock market, particularly when they don’t have to! Ours has been a long and expensive learning curve and we provide all of that experience to our subscribers in order to help them make money from trading stocks and, importantly, to keep it!

But it seems to be a human characteristic that some people can’t, or won’t, take advice or help and insist on doing it ‘their way’ – even though we have been down that route and found that it just doesn’t work.

Spread Betting is a relatively new and exciting tool and is used by many but it can be a very dangerous tool for those who look upon trading shares as a quick and easy way to make money. It can be quick and easy but only when full recognition is taken of the risks and dangers and that is where we at ShareHunter are able to help.

One of the ‘facts’ that we heard about this week was that one Spread Betting company had said that, on average it took their account holders just 7 months to lose all of their trading capital!

That is a frightening statistic if true but then most newcomers to Spread Betting are not ‘trading’ in the true sense of the word, they really are just gambling; enjoying the adrenalin rush rather than the thrill of accumulating wealth – and contributing to the above statistics in the process.

….here endeth the lesson!

LLOYDS BANK – a ‘Buy’ above 80p

Published on September 17, 2010 in Education and Market Reviews. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , .

Lloyds Bank share price is in process of changing its dominant trend from an Accumulation trend to an Uptrend which, if it succeeds, will place it firmly in the ‘buy’ category.

The price has been moving steadily upwards of late and has, so far, succeeded in both closing the price ‘gap’ which opened up during the sudden gap down in November 2009 and in overcoming the earlier resistance created by the 12.5% retracement of its long and steep ‘07 to ‘09 collapse, at 70p. But the price has stalled after meeting resistance at the 80p level  (the purple line on the daily price chart below) -

LLOYDS BANK – Daily:

If the supply (volume) remains moderate and the buyer interest does not wane then the price should, perhaps soon, succeed in overcoming the 80p level resistance and, once it has, the price should move reasonably freely certainly up to the 95p area and, possibly, then on to test the resistance at the 108p level ( being the 25% retracement of the collapse).

LLOYDS BANK – Weekly:

So, it is likely that we will call a ‘buy’ on LLoyds Bank once the share price has broken above, and is clear of, 80p – but it is never definite until the event is analysed again.

AGS

Chief Analyst

ShareHunter.com

The FTSE to Rise or to Fall?

Published on September 13, 2010 in Market Reviews. 2 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , .

It is all very much ‘in the balance’.We use 9 separate trend indicators to establish the dominant trend of any index (or individual share). Currently only 2 indicators are showing as positive with 1 showing negative and 6 as neutral.

So the FTSE has no definitive trend and it could develop either way (as can readily be seen by even just a cursory glance at the chart below) -

Or, of course, the FTSE could continue to meander along sideways for weeks to come. We doubt that though. The length of the current sideways move is now about 12 months and this is the extreme of any previous sideways move looking back over the last decade. We continue to expect the FTSE to make a definitive move within the next few weeks.

So the message remains ‘go careful and stay watchful’ so that you get into the trend when it starts and, more importantly, so that you don’t get wrong footed and get caught by an adverse move. Patience is the watchword.

The FTSE ‘Dam’ is due to Burst Soon

Published on September 9, 2010 in Education and Market Reviews. 2 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , .

The rise in the FTSE last week has taken the index to the same level that it was at 10 months ago. Nothing exceptional about that, you may say. But the point is that this is getting towards the end of the historical maximum period before the market ‘blows off’ – one way or the other.

Looking back over the last 9 years of the FTSE 100 index you can see from the chart below (click on it to enlarge it) that each time there has been a lengthy sideways period (of Consolidation or Distribution) it has been followed by a significant move -

It is during such follow-up moves, up or down, that significant profits can be made.

The current period is further enhanced by the extra compression that comes from the coming together of the two moving averages. These two are good trend identifiers but, when ‘mixing’ together they indicate a building compression which will, eventually, be released by a strong move. And, after 10 months of sidling along, such a move is due soon.

All of this tends to support our view that this Autumn will see the FTSE move decisively.

We are ready for it. Are you?

Is the FTSE heading to 6000?

Published on September 6, 2010 in Uncategorized. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , .

The FTSE 100’s 226 point rise last week was a show of strength and we continue to be impressed by the support provided by the 5010-5350 block area which has, over the last year, prevented the index from plummeting.

This area of 5010 to 5350 remains key to the FTSE’s future. If the index can stay, above 5350 then the rally will continue and the trend should change to an uptrend with 6000 then becoming a real possibility.

A large and decisive move is likely to get underweigh this Autumn and, on our current analysis of the technical signals and despite the positive signals of last week’s rise, that move is likely to be down; and sharply down at that. Probably to 4800 and then lower. At best we would put the current ‘odds’ at 60:40 on a down move.

Reasons why and the detailed forecast for the FTSE’s next move are given in our latest ‘FTSE Forecast’ which is available on request to Admin@ShareHunter.com